Five Out: Portal Madness, Historical Moments and the Last Madness to Come.
As we prepare a final send off to the 2025 NCAA women's basketball season, the groundwork is being laid for what's coming in the years ahead...
It’s pretty wild to think that this is one of the last Five Out’s centered on the 2024-2025 women’s college basketball season. It’s been an incredible ride and it’s been a joy to watch stories evolve, takes be proven right or wrong and get to see the growth of the sport and our outlet happen side by side.
I do want to take a quick moment to shout out our team here at No Cap Space WBB. Greer, Tyler and Chauny will be headed to Tampa to anchor our coverage of the Final Four and National Championship games for the first time in our short history. This time last year, we were effectively told that our outlet was still too new and too small to be properly credentialed for these events. Fast forward 12 months and we have three members of our small but mighty pirate ship of media misfits providing the patented Boots on The Ground.
It’s just a cool moment for us in our lifespan as a media outlet but also a gratifying moment because of what we’re able to provide to you, our readers. Whether you’re a regular reader, casual observer, free subscriber or member of our paid Ball-Knowers tier, none of this cool stuff happens without you. Consequently, it allows us to get you exclusive locker room interviews with Hailey Van Lith after a Sweet Sixteen win over Notre Dame, Raven Johnson blocking out the noise or Dawn Staley’s scheduling thought process.
And there’s even more coming in Tampa so stay tuned and lock in with us! On to the column…
1. UCLA Makes History and Opens Up a Historical Discussion…
First of all, what a win for UCLA and a great moment for Cori Close. The Bruins head coach is genuinely one of the good ones in the sport and you’d be hard pressed to find anyone in women’s basketball willing to say something negative about her. While it’s been a long build over the last decade to get UCLA to this point — and a few Tourney losses that made you wonder if she had the ability to do it — Close finally gets over the hump and is headed to her first Final Four. I said it on our postgame show on YouTube that her Elite Eight win this year mirrors Wes Moore’s last season with NC State. There is just something validating as a coach to make the national semifinal. If you take it further and win a title it cements you forever.
But I found it interesting to see the amount of “First Final Four in Program History” posts with regard to UCLA’s achievement. I’m not here to gatekeep or wave a cane at anyone that did it because it is, in essence, technically correct. This is the first time the Bruins have ever made it to a Final Four in NCAA Tournament play. But there was once a governing body for women’s basketball that existed prior to 1982. It was called the AIAW and is a focus of a lot of our Legendarium stories that take a look at the first era of college teams in the post Title IX era. During that time, which lasted from 1972 to 1982, UCLA made two Final Fours in 1978 and 1979. They won the 1978 national championship which marked the first time a major university had won a title in women’s basketball.
It’s a story you’ll be able to find here tomorrow as part of The Legendarium.
I bring it up not to chastise people for not knowing the history but instead to point out this rather weird erasure of that era that’s happened. Some of the greatest names of our game — Ann Meyers Drysdale, Nancy Lieberman, Lucy Harris, Marianne Stanley, Lynette Woodard, Pearl Moore and so many more — helped lay the groundwork for the sport during this period. But once the NCAA took over governance of women’s sports, everything seemingly was erased. Everything except, interestingly enough, career wins for head coaches. So when we talk about scoring records, high watermarks and huge achievements by players, we only go back to 1982.
If nothing else, this isn’t a means to gripe about new fans or big media not knowing history. In fact, it’s actually a time for us as longtime members of the women’s basketball space to look in the mirror and reflect on why we haven’t done a better job of caretaking our history so these kinds of things don’t keep happening. UCLA is back in the Final Four and making their own history in the world of the NCAA. But it’s a good chance too to look into what came before and how the legacy of people like Ann Meyers-Drysdale, Denise Curry, Anita Ortega and others helped get us to this moment.
2. The Portal is Poppin’. Does Revenue Sharing Change Any Movement?
The transfer portal continues to churn and every day more and more players come in. There’s a couple major names still to go public with their decision and, as early as Monday morning, we saw Indiana’s star stretch big Yardon Garzon become the sixth Indiana player to hit the portal. On some level, it’s not out of the ordinary. We’ve seen this year after year since the transfer rules were changed and that freedom of movement became much more, well, free.
But what comes next in a ‘Post-House’ world is whether or not we see a more equal distribution of talent or if the rich will just get richer. Up to this point, it’s been a mixed bag. I’m still of the belief (as I wrote last week) that some of the chalkiness we’re seeing in this year’s tournament is a result of the portal but also COVID eligibility running out for some fifth and sixth year players at mid-major programs. That logjam of scholarships may have dispersed talent or forced younger players into the portal when they might have stuck around and excelled for non-power teams. For the most part, the remaining programs in the tournament this year have used transfers to augment their rosters but, for the most part, large chunks of their starting fives are players that have been there since their freshman year.
As we head into the future, the same question I had about coaching hires extends to transfers as well. Are programs that have a higher percentage of revenue share more likely to benefit and be able to entice players in the portal? And does that very same rev-share replace what collectives are currently paying players in NIL or will it be used as something of a cherry on top? On some level, I’d like to believe that the concept of a ‘women’s basketball school’ like a Louisiana Tech or Old Dominion could happen again. Is a savvy athletic director at a mid-major looking at the state of things and thinking “let’s cut a big slice of this pie off to make a dominant WBB program”? The next two years of portal movement will give us an interesting case study in whether or not that’s possible. I really hope it gives us a level of parity again. I’m typically fine with #1, 2 or 3 seeds making the Final Four but the amount of blowouts along the way has been less than ideal.
3. South Carolina Is In Another Final Four. Are They Our New England Patriots? (Stay with me on this one…)
I know there are some that might bristle at this. Others might outright hate it. And look, I get it! But I’m not here to draw this Patriots comparison to say that South Carolina is the evil empire. Far from it, in fact.
In watching Duke’s absolutely unconscionable final possession against the Gamecocks, down 2 with the ball and the shot clock turned off, it suddenly clicked why watching South Carolina drives me crazy from time to time. I love watching teams snatch wins through big shots and clutch defense. More often than not, SC does that. But there are other moments where opponents just completely shrivel. Coaches get tight and make bad decisions, players dribble the ball off their feet or airball jumpers. In short, someone loses the game more than the other wins. The casual fan in me hates that because it places the onus on the person that made the mistake. My enjoyment of sports comes in watching others achieve greatness rather than relish in the misery of someone’s miscues.
But here’s the reframe…
South Carolina does that to teams because they’re more battle tested, poised and smart in the clutch than just about any other team in the sport. While I hate watching someone biff it on a national stage, you’re also watching Gamecock players *not* make mistakes. You’re watching Sania Feagin hit turnaround jumpers at massive moments. You’re seeing Raven Johnson clamp elite guards who could otherwise lead their teams to a win. And, perhaps most importantly, you’re watching Dawn Staley not flinch. A coach might do something like take out their best player on the final possession because they just haven’t been in this position before. Kara Lawson, in this instance, was leading a team in her first ever Elite Eight matchup with a Final Four on the line. Dawn Staley has been in this position so many times that it’s just another March afternoon in Birmingham.
The greatness of South Carolina, Staley and her players is in that ability to let other teams make the mistakes. You just have to play your game and adhere to your system and you end up winning. Which is a lot like what we would see the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady Patriots do for years in the NFL. The other example I like to use is how golfers used to talk about Tiger Woods and the mental edge he had on Sundays. Otherwise elite players would crumble because Tiger’s walking up to the teebox in his Sunday reds and you just know it’s over. South Carolina, right now, has a similar aura against teams right now. It doesn’t matter how they look for 3/4 of a game. Once crunch time comes, they know exactly what buttons to push to be able to pull out victories. Is it kind of annoying from time to time for those of us that enjoy the upsets that sports provides? Sure. But knowing when you’re watching greatness is a major part of sports fandom, in my opinion. And right now, there may not be a greater team at winning the mental battle in tight moments than Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks.
4. Will NCAA Tournament Performances Change the WNBA Draft Discussion?
Probably the most underdiscussed thing to come out of the tournament this week is the player-specific questions with regard to the 2025 WNBA Draft. Paige Bueckers put to rest all of the rumors and reporting about her future while others kept the door open about what the future holds. Flau’jae Johnson and Olivia Miles both are considered ‘TBD’ with regard to whether or not they’re going to head into the draft. What’s interesting is it feeds the belief that some of the trades done by WNBA teams has been rooted in the concern that players might opt to return to school. Part of that is because of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement on the way and that rookies stand to gain more if they enter next year versus this year.
With those players statuses up in the air, it makes you wonder who is trending up and down on draft boards. Let’s start with who is trending up…
Aneesah Morrow is the easy answer here. I don’t know of a player that has had a better Tournament and showcase of their translatable skills at the next level than her. It may be an old-school mentality but the effort and motor she plays with jumps out on the screen and her offensive bag is a bit more refined than Angel Reese’s when she left LSU. So if you take the defensive ability at the wing, rebounding intensity and consistent scoring ability, that looks like a player that should go in the top five of the draft.
Kiki Iriafen is another that has shown her ability in the wake of JuJu Watkins’ injury, helping anchor the Women of Troy’s frontcourt as they outlasted Kansas State in the Sweet Sixteen. There’s been a lot of dialogue around the 6’4 forward this year but I think it’s pretty apparent that she’s playing in an offense that prioritizes one player (understandably so, when you consider how good JuJu is). But we’re less than a year removed from a 40 spot for Stanford in the NCAA Tournament and she dropped 36 in USC’s win over Mississippi State. The skill and ceiling is there so we might get a legitimate “this is why she was the consensus number two prospect early in the year” performance tonight against UConn.
The big question among players is the guards and how they’ve played in this tournament. Hailey Van Lith’s stock is skyrocketing while others like Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron’s are maybe facing some more questions than originally anticipated. While recency bias can taint a lot of how we look at top players, I’m curious how much they come into play once we get into the actual draft discussion. We’ve seen high risers come out of March and April before and with so much on the line in this coming set of selections, I’m curious to see what the front office folks weigh most heavily.
5. A Quick Elite Eight Preview for Tonight’s Matchups…
Before we go, let’s run you through the Elite Eight matchups tonight and what I’m watching for…
TCU vs. Texas
It’s a battle of Texas for a spot in the Final Four. On the one end, you have Vic Schaefer’s Longhorns, hoping to make a national semifinal for the first time since he took the job. On the other end you’ve got Mark Campbell and TCU trying to make a Final Four for the first time ever. There’s a lot of fun narratives and agendas at play here.
From a matchup perspective, there are two players to watch that will tilt the game. Sedona Prince managed to overcome a rough performance on the boards by getting to the line and frustrating Notre Dame’s bigs to help the Horned Frogs make the Elite Eight. But will she able to do the same against a much more experienced and talented frontline? Taylor Jones and Kyla Oldacre have been excellent this year and a hallmark of Vic’s teams are their ability to jam up free-flowing offenses like TCU’s. Prince will be called upon to get to the line and fight for rebounds and if she plays up to her double-double averages, the Frogs have a shot.
The other matchup I’m curious about is Madison Booker and who on TCU will draw the defensive assignment on her. For the most part, the Frogs are a team comprised of smaller sharp-shooting guards and one massive center to run pick-n-roll off of. If you look at Oregon’s 2019 Final Four team (the closest analog to this TCU team I have), there is one player they had that TCU doesn’t: Satou Sabally. What she brought was that perfect big wing that could score at multiple levels and defend multiple positions on the floor. Who is that person on this roster and are they up to the task of defending the reigning SEC Player of the Year in Booker?
UConn vs. USC
Obviously this matchup loses a bit of juice with JuJu out of the lineup but I will be glued to the TV in this game primarily because USC’s freshmen turned out to all have the goods. Kansas State is an elite defensive unit with a lot of great perimeter players with veteran experience. And yet, it didn’t matter to the Trojans’ two freshman guards in Avery Howell and Kennedy Smith. What’s impressive about that win is USC’s frontcourt of Kiki Iriafen and Rayah Marshall shot a combined 7/24.
Are these freshmen ready for UConn in the Elite Eight? You know that Geno Auriemma and Paige Bueckers are ready for the moment. Paige, in particular, put up 40 points in the Huskies Sweet Sixteen blowout win over Oklahoma. There’s a desire, will and maybe a bit of a taste for revenge after USC beat them in Connecticut earlier this year. But without JuJu, the entire calculus of defending the Women of Troy changes. Will we get to see a bit of Lindsay Gottlieb flexing her coaching muscles? Do we get a Kiki Iriafen legacy game against Sarah Strong? Or conversely, do we get a Sarah Strong coming out party alongside Paige?
The amount of storylines we have for both these games is great and we’ll be on YouTube breaking it all down in our postgame tonight.