Five Out: The Lynx are a real deal title threat, the tank for Paige is on and how 1.1 seconds may have changed the Aces season

The rookies are bringing a dose of reality to the WNBA, why Maya Moore's jersey retirement is more complex than 'The W can't market their legends' + more. Five thoughts for the week of August 25, 2024

Courtesy: Stephen Maturen // Getty Images

It might be hard to believe but we’re officially in the final month of the WNBA regular season. The playoffs begin on September 22nd and each team has around ten games left to try and lock in a seed line. Just about every position is still up for grabs in some way, shape or form.

The Liberty, for example, see the Storm twice and the Aces and Lynx once each. They’re only 2.5-3 games ahead of Connecticut and Minnesota for the top seed. Vegas has a brutal stretch in September: Chicago, Connecticut (twice), Indiana (twice) and Seattle. Of those seven games, five are on the road. 7 of the Mercury’s last 10 games are against the best five teams in the league. One bad slide and the 5-6 seeds could flip and that’s before we get into the battle for 7th and 8th.

In short…set your DVR. We could end up with some insanely compelling races and games before we even get to the playoffs.

So what can you expect on No Cap Space this week?

Tuesday: Minnesota Timberwolves rookie Alissa Pili drops by for this week’s edition of Luxury Tax.

Wednesday: We tap in with the next generation of women’s basketball stars with some interviews taken at Overtime Select’s events last week. Tennessee commit and 2025 Five Star Mia Pauldo hangs out with Tyler and Greer to talk some ball.

Thursday:

Chauny

pops in with another column on coverage inequity in the WNBA and why combatting it doesn’t stop and start with every new great white hope.

Friday:

Tyler DeLuca

and

Greer Engonga

are back to preview OT Select’s final weekend and tap in with No. 5 overall recruit in the class of 2027, Jezelle ‘GG’ Banks.

Weekend: We’ll be on Youtube with a Sunday WNBA wrap ups as well as a quick write on the winners of Overtime Select championship weekend.

Now to the column…

1. The Lynx are moving into title favorite territory…

There was a period where Napheesa Collier’s injury status was a real question mark for the Minnesota Lynx. Her Plantar Fascitis had returned in early July and the nature of that diagnosis suggested it might be awhile until she came back. Thankfully, it didn’t sideline her too long and had no impact on her Olympic run either. While certain players came back from Paris and still look a little out of sorts (more on that in a second…), Collier has come back and looked like an MVP candidate.

In fact, she’d probably be the favorite if A’ja Wilson wasn’t putting together one of the greatest statistical seasons in league history (more on that in a second too…). That said, Collier is the WNBA Player of the Month at the very least. Over five games — all wins, including two over the Aces — Phee has averaged 25.6 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game on a ridiculous 77.4% shooting clip. Worthy of conversation? Absolutely. Worthy of dethroning Wilson atop the MVP standings? Let’s not get too hasty.

But beyond Collier, who has led the Lynx to a 20-5 record when she is in the lineup, Minnesota has looked the part of a title team this August. They handled Vegas in back-to-back matchups and dispatched a surging Indiana Fever over the weekend. The worst of their schedule is behind them and they face the bottom half of the league in seven of their last 10 games of the season.

They are — by a wide margin — the best three point shooters in the league this year (.391 as a team) and top the WNBA in team assists per game with 23.4. What’s wild is even with that movement and efficiency they’re still one of the slower teams in the W (11th out of 12) relying on a stifling defense (league leading 95.8 DRTG) that doesn’t surrender many trips to the line (.184 free throws per field goal attempt). With Collier as the engine, they’ve looked exceedingly hard to beat and in a season when there isn’t a prohibitive title favorite it could be Minnesota’s year once again.

2. A’ja Wilson may have saved the Aces dynasty in 1.1 seconds.

Now, I won’t speculate on if the ‘MVPhee’ talk over the weekend was heard by A’ja Wilson or if she just felt that the only way to lead her team was to put them on her back. But something early on in that game against the Chicago Sky suggested a frustration and exhaustion from the reigning MVP that we don’t often see.

But real or imagined, Wilson has no reason to worry (at least, not yet). There still really isn’t much of a race despite a post-Olympic slump for the Aces and one lackluster (by her standards given she finished with 20 points and 18 rebounds) performance by Wilson.

She still leads the league in the following stats…

Points: 750

Points Per Game: 26.8

Defensive Rebounds: 268

Blocks: 74

Blocks Per Game: 2.6

Field Goals: 279

Player Efficiency Rating: 35.6 (for reference, Collier is 3rd with 26.4)

Win Shares: 8.1 (Collier 3rd with 5.7)

Offensive Win Shares: 5.5

Defensive Rebound Percentage: 31.3

Block Percentage: 6.5

Turnover Percentage: 6.2

The PER would set an all-time WNBA record over Lauren Jackson while her win shares would be Top 20 (she set the all-time win shares season record in 2023). Simply put, she’s the best in the sport right now and, even with a bad shooting night against Chicago, it would take a legit effort on her part to fumble the award now. It probably won’t be unanimous but, quite honestly, it should be. Imagine where this Aces team is without her. That’s value. Her stats also suggest she’s the most outstanding player in the league. Every way you define a Most Valuable Player, she is it and will likely still be it by the end of next month.

But here’s what’s crazy. All of it could’ve been undone in 1.1 seconds.

Whether we like it or not, the MVP award is partially narrative driven. At the beginning of the year, there was talk of a GOAT chase for Wilson and the chance to stunt on whoever voted her fourth in last year’s race. But since the return from Paris, as we noted last week, the vibes have looked absolutely horrific in Vegas. That continued with back to back losses to the Lynx. Against the Sky, Wilson was visibly frustrated with her team’s effort, the officiating and made a cryptic comment that left many wondering if she was talking about the refs or about fellow Gamecock alum Kamilla Cardoso, who was giving Wilson the business all day. Throughout the game, the Aces looked disjointed, Jackie Young was almost non-existent and once Chennedy Carter hit not one but two unbelievable three pointers to tie the game, it felt like another loss was one the way.

What would the discussion have been if Las Vegas lost to Chicago again and dropped a fifth game out of six with the only win coming against the tanking Sparks and the woman currently suing your organization for discrimination? Some may discount momentum’s impact on teams but it sure felt like we were headed for some real uncomfortable conversations about the Aces had Wilson not hit that shot. Not only that, games like that have broken dynasties or swung series before. It’s not hard to imagine a world where, had they lost to the Sky, Las Vegas succumbs to the mental fatigue and their season is derailed, potentially closing a championship window.

Instead, with 1.1 seconds on the clock and off a perfect feed from Chelsea Gray, A’ja got a bonafide MVP moment, a win and allowed Vegas to breathe for the first time since the All-Star break. Their postgame energy and press conference demeanor felt lighter after the win. Does that mean they’re equipped to turn around and win the Finals now? Absolutely not. But sometimes there are plays in sports that can change the fortune of many. That shot felt like one. Time will tell how true that is.

3. Reality is indeed coming but it’s the rookie class bringing it.

Turns out, Diana Taurasi’s ‘reality is coming’ comment caused the monkey’s paw to curl in a way that I know she didn’t expect. Not only did her Phoenix Mercury get swept by Caitlin Clark’s Indiana Fever but the ‘reality’ is that the rookie class, about 3/4 of the way through their debut WNBA season, are a historically good group.

Clark has averaged 25 points, 5 rebounds and 9 assists since her return to WNBA play. I won’t bore you with the list of records she’s set or broken this year.

Angel Reese set a new WNBA record Sunday with three straight 20+ rebound games. Like Clark, Reese’s list is getting long too.

Kamilla Cardoso blocked the reigning MVP five times, the most Wilson has blocked by a single player in one game in her career. Since returning from injury she’s looked the part of a player that, in many other years, would run away with the Rookie of the Year award.

Rickea Jackson posted a career high 25 points and has scored in double figures in 12 of her last 13 games. More than a few times this year, she’s shown flashes at all three levels that she can be a perennial scoring champ in this league.

That’s before we get into the players that are either injured (Cam Brink, Liz Kitley), playing rotational minutes (Jacy Sheldon, Aaliyah Edwards Alissa Pili, Kate Martin) or have stuck on a roster and have the chance to grow in the W (Nika Muhl, Marquesha Davis, Celeste Taylor, Jaylyn Sherrod).

So were the ‘new fans’ right? Was this league really only a certain level of good before this group of players came into the W?

Yes and no.

Generational players are generational. Whether it’s Cheryl Miller, Sheryl Swoopes, Lisa Leslie, Candace Parker, Maya Moore, A’ja Wilson, Caitlin Clark or JuJu Watkins, every era is going to have players that are the cream of the crop. So in that way, they’re wrong. There have always been ballers in this league that have deserved praise. Clark’s transcendent shooting skill is just another evolution in a proud lineage of amazing players.

Where they are right is in that this class — and the next ones coming — are on the whole better than the classes before them. That’s no shade to the WNBA or the women that came prior. It happens in every sport. The expectation is that as sports develop, every subsequent draft class will raise the floor of the talent level of the league. While it’s one of the hardest leagues to make, the 144 spots in this league are not purely given on merit. Chennedy Carter is a perfect example of that. Is she one of the best 144 women’s basketball players on earth? Absolutely. Were there other components other than her skill that kept her off a roster for a year? Yes.

So when we argue about the growth of the league it might be okay to say that, perhaps, the new class of kids coming in are legitimately different. I spent an inordinate amount of time looking at past drafts and the statistics would suggest that it’s been a long time since four players in the same draft class have had the immediate impacts that Clark, Reese, Cardoso and Jackson have had. The most recent I could find was in 2006, when Seimone Augustus, Cappie Pondexter, Sophia Young and Candice Dupree — three of whom were rookie All-Stars — came into the W.

This year, Clark and Reese were All-Stars. CC — to me — is a lock for All-WNBA while Angel has a case to make as arguably the league’s best rebounder. Cardoso and Jackson are currently playing at an All-Star level even though circumstances (injuries and coaching decisions) kept them from showing their talent earlier.

Dating back to 2014, which comprises the bulk of the 144 players in the league right now, the 2019 class still has the most active rostered players with 17 total. Right behind them are the 2022 and 2024 classes, though it’s worth noting that there are 5 rookies playing abroad as stashes that could change the numbers.

In short, it’s a hard league to make but the kids are making it look easy. Maybe it might just be a truly transcendent and deep draft class that we look back on as an outlier. But it also might be a sign of things to come. Does it mean that the haters were right and that the league hasn’t had the talent it’s always had? No. The greats have always been great and would be great regardless of era. But it’s fair to argue now that this class could be the first of a sea change that raises the overall talent floor and average of the WNBA. Looking at next year’s mock drafts, I’d say expect that trend to continue.

4. The real race to tank for Paige Bueckers has begun…

Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines. The three team race to tank for Paige Bueckers has begun.

In pole position, you have Los Angeles who, it would appear, actively threw a road game on Sunday in Dallas to stay at the bottom of the WNBA standings. Rickea Jackson, who already got off to a slow start because Curt Miller wouldn’t play her, is cooking the Wings and all of a sudden gets sent to the bench while Dallas cuts into the lead? Something is afoot! Without Cam Brink, the roster is just not competitive and clearly are in need of a point guard, among other pieces. Odyssey Sims is a great stopgap solution and someone I personally would hang onto as a rotational/sixth woman piece but an all-pro PG is what you’ll need to fully unlock Brink and Rickea. Those three would constitute a young core as good as any in the W.

The Wings, who are sporting a 7-22 record and in dire need of a point guard since Arike is…well…Arike, have a good chance to potentially be the top pick at the end of the season. They are giving up, on average, 90.9 points per game and regularly allowing teams to drop over 100 on them. Injuries have hampered them this year but this roster just doesn’t have it especially on the defensive end. If everyone was healthy start to finish this year, are things different? Maybe. But with an absolute gauntlet ahead (two games vs. Vegas, two vs. New York, two vs. Indiana, one vs. Seattle and one vs. Minnesota), they may be the ones with the best lottery odds when it’s all said and done.

And finally, we have the Washington Mystics who seemed like a shoo-in for the top spot until they had the audacity to win some games before the All-Star break. I credit Eric Thibault though. This team is trying to compete and has just had a rough run of injuries from Brittney Sykes to Shakira Austin and others. Ironically, they might not be the team that needs a point guard that much but when another generational talent is staring you in the face you don’t walk away from it. Their schedule is interesting considering they have a couple of games against the Dream and Wings that could help or hurt the tank case.

But there’s good news for everyone on this list. Depending on how the year shakes out, if you miss on Paige Bueckers you could end up with Olivia Miles. If you lose out on Miles, you can draft Rori Harmon. They might not sell the jerseys like Paige will but they will 100% make your team better. But try telling that to one of these owners. They saw what Caitlin did for the Fever from a business standpoint and Paige’s cultural status, especially on TikTok for the uninitiated, would mean a jump into the scene they may not have ever had before. So folks, put on your Dukakis helmets and brace for war. The tanks are marching one by one.

5. The W…for once…isn’t to blame for the Maya Moore jersey retirement debacle.

Alright, so once again let’s take you behind the TV curtain. When the WNBA announced their schedules, their national television partners — ESPN, Amazon, CBS and NBATV — began to pick which games they wanted. All the way back in April, the W announced that the league owned network would be picking up and providing special coverage of Maya Moore’s jersey retirement.

So how did this happen? For starters, every broadcaster gets specific dates or time slots, per the WNBA’s media rights agreement.

CBS, for example, gets Saturday and Sunday afternoons. ION came into the fold in 2023 and created an entire ‘Friday Night Spotlight’ for the league. Amazon Prime gets Thursday nights and the Commissioner’s Cup Final while NBATV gets Saturday doubleheaders. The notable exception here is ESPN who, in addition to carrying the playoffs, can really pick games and put them where they want.

The networks can’t poach games from each other and even if they did, we have to be honest: ESPN and CBS are going to prioritize the first college football games of the year, no matter how small the teams are. Pigskin is king in this country and while women’s basketball is enjoying a moment the numbers and consistency football provides a network still trumps every other sport.

As for why something like Prime couldn’t take the game…I’m unsure if there are mechanisms in place where they can flex a game off a regional broadcast to a national one. I doubt it. The only league that has substantial flex scheduling ability is the NFL but it’s because their media partners are exclusively national broadcasters (ABC/CBS/FOX/NBC). Networks also make their programming schedules based on time windows. Unless it’s a big game, it’s exceedingly rare these days that you get full pre and post game ‘shoulder programming’. They cost a lot of money to make when you can simply just dump out of one game and go to another. It drives many — but particularly women’s basketball fans — crazy because on some level it indicates a lack of belief that lead in and lead out can’t be retained for a certain amount of time. On the other hand, most sporting events occur in specific windows. If you want a half hour postgame show after a WNBA game that ends at 4:00 pm ET on a Saturday then you’ll need to find programming that fits in the 4:30 window. That’s not easy especially if most games start at the top of the hour.

Now from the Lynx’s perspective, the timing makes sense. Saturday night, primetime, national TV slot (technically). Caitlin Clark and the Fever are in town so you know you’re getting the sellout bump. There’s also a connection between Clark and Maya Moore that you want to play up. Indiana was also on the schedule July 14th for an ESPN game for a 4:00 pm ET tip. Could they have done it then? Maybe but I’d be willing to bet they wanted a prime time slot for fans in the arena (fans logically might leave following an afternoon tip because they’ve got stuff to do vs. a nighttime tip when they’re devoting the whole evening). And, who knows, maybe Moore’s schedule didn’t allow for it.

So that’s how you get to NBA TV.

Here’s the problem.

It’s the perfect network for a game like this. Basketball specific channel, in an offseason, no real programming conflicts to speak of and live events typically rate better than reruns of anything. So, naturally, for a league owned entity, they’d have a pre and postgame show that could bridge the time between play and the jersey retirement, right?

Wrong.

The WNBA, for their part, did send out push alerts and let people know they could watch the jersey retirement for free. Bally Sports North, the regional partner of the Lynx, did a good job sharing the content. But if NBATV’s goal was to provide special coverage of the event, why were they cutting out of it to a documentary on Shaq and Kobe? Blame for not honoring Maya lays at the feet of the producers, programming VP’s and executives in the room. Could the W have pushed a little more in certain places? Yes. They always can. Much like it was with Sylvia Fowles and Seimone Augustus, the WNBA has not earned a benefit of the doubt in how they honor — or rather, don’t honor — their legends that built the league. But this is a rare moment where the antagonist, as it sometimes is, is the male counterpart on the other side of the W’s equation. What’s the solution to it? That’s a column for another time. I just know that while the event looked great, Maya Moore deserved a ceremony that broke containment and was adequately handled by the league’s TV partner. That it came at the hands of a network owned by the entity that controls the W adds to a continually brewing belief that the NBA is playing an active role in stunting the growth of an exploding league.