We’ve made it, friends!
After months of predicting, projecting and figuring out who the top teams are in the world of NCAA women’s basketball, we still have no idea! This Tournament might be one of the most open in recent memory, with four programs that could reasonably be national champions but no one really head and shoulders above everyone.
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And finally, NO CAP SPACE WBB IS HEADED TO TAMPA! We’ll have not one, not two, but three sets of Boots on the Ground at the 2025 Final Four this year. It’s a situation where we truly couldn’t do it without you, your views, subscriptions, likes, comments and shares. Just a year after we were told to, in essence, get our numbers up to be on the radar, we are here covering the NCAA Tournament in full. From the bottom of our hearts, thank you all. You are a fundamental part of helping us put together the most comprehensive women’s basketball coverage anywhere.
Now, to the column!
1. Lindsay Gottlieb has a point about being miffed over USC’s seed.
This is the time of year where coaches really get deep in their motivation bag. You find boogeymen where they may not be any there because, if nothing else, it gets your players hyped on the idea that “no one believes in us” when the reality is that damn near everyone does. But if there is one legitimately reasonable gripe it’s from USC head women’s basketball coach Lindsay Gottlieb, who took some shots at the selection committee regarding her teams’ seeding. It wasn’t an issue of the Women of Troy not being a one seed, it was which of them they were and who they ended up seeing.
USC is the fourth number one seed and thus, sees the top two seed of the NCAA Tournament which is UConn. So, for the second year in a row, we’re going to get that matchup between the Women of Troy and the Huskies for a shot to make the Final Four. It feels a little early, unfortunately, but with five teams legitimately in the running for that top seed, someone had to draw the short straw. Texas ended up with the third one seed and has a rather interesting potential path to the Elite Eight and Final Four.
But I do think Gottlieb has a point here. The NCAA NET rankings are negligible here between Texas (4th) and USC (6th), as are the records vs. Quad 1 opponents (14-3 for UT, 13-3 for USC). There’s a fair argument that, at a certain point, you look at worst loss and the Women of Troy’s upset defeat at the hands of Iowa hampers them vs. Texas, whose losses are South Carolina (twice) and Notre Dame. Personally, I handicap that Hawkeye game because of everything that came with it. There’s just no way they were losing on Caitlin Clark jersey retirement day. Doesn’t matter who came to town.
If it was truly a coin flip, then you go eye test. And, to me, I just feel like USC has had a better end to the year, plays better basketball, somehow (SOMEHOW!) feels less reliant on a single player to power their offense and has the less blowout-y conference tournament title game loss. It’s splitting hairs but the difference between Texas’ bracket and USC’s is pretty stark when you consider UConn’s presence and how well the Huskies have played. It doesn’t mean the Women of Troy are doomed but I think she’s got a point being frustrated.
2. South Carolina is taking a page out of the Kirby Smart handbook. And it’ll probably work.
Meanwhile, South Carolina is about to throw on those ‘Doubt Us’ shirts and roll out to Columbia and then Birmingham as if they’ve been wronged in an absolutely unimaginable way. This is straight out of the SEC head football coach playbook. I thought I’d seen it all when Kirby Smart pulled this tactic but I give a lot of credit to Dawn Staley: she can find the grievance with the top overall seed selection and make even the most ardent skeptic look at it from her perspective.
On some level, I can understand it. Is anyone playing better basketball than the Gamecocks right now? I’m really not sure. They obliterated the SEC field and look every bit like the team we expected them to be at the beginning of the season. If we want to take Coach Gottlieb’s argument and apply eye test to USC over Texas then, by that metric, South Carolina has a case over UCLA. But here’s the rub as I see it: the Bruins and Gamecocks played each other already and I do think that has to count for something. Is that result the same today? I’m not sure but we play these games for a reason.
NCAA Tournament selection is based on data points that we accumulate over the course of the entire season and eye test stuff starts to come into play when we have to evaluate teams that we haven’t seen play one another yet (see, USC & Texas). In this case, UCLA won. If South Carolina wanted that top overall seed, don’t lose that game. It’s that simple. I also think it’s notable for the Bruins that their only two losses were to their top four crosstown rival on two occasions. It has to count for something.
As far as Dawn is concerned, I think it’s awesome. This is the exact type of mental gymnastics and force of will that the great ones possess. Nick Saban used to do this all the time and my running gag is that Dawn is closer, in essence and mindset, to an SEC football coach than any women’s basketball coach in the history of the game. She knows how to play the game, work the crowd and win a hell of a lot of games. And if this month ends with her holding another trophy, I guarantee that “Doubt Us” is coming right back up almost immediately.
3. The Liberty are back to being WNBA title favorites with the Natasha Could trade.
Talk about an absolutely out of nowhere news dump. In the middle of Selection Sunday, on our YouTube live reaction show, I looked at Tyler and Chauny and said “uhh Natasha Cloud just got traded to the Liberty”. And so we derailed the show for a good 15 minutes to hear Chauny crash out at the idea of Sabrina Ionescu potentially getting another WNBA title ring and right the 1/19 that’s been hung over head in the last handful of months. For my agenda, as the longtime former Oregon beat writer and Sabrina Ionescu fan fighting an impossible battle against her chief hater, this is fantastic. Do I think Sab is a face of the league type player? The jury is still out. But I can’t abide by her only potential title ring coming via that Game 4 shooting performance, finger injury or not. We need another.
The Natasha Cloud trade re-opens the title window after an offseason in which it felt like the rest of the WNBA went for broke to try and get a title before the next CBA kicks in. In a lot of ways, you effectively traded Courtney Vandersloot for Natasha Cloud and, given the respective ages, that’s an instant upgrade. Now you’re again able to either have Betnijah Laney-Hamilton as an elite sixthwoman or have Cloud in that role. What does it mean for their two younger players in Marquesha Davis and Jaylyn Sherrod? That’s a good question. We ride hard for Jaylyn at this publication so we’re hoping the former Colorado superstar is able to slide into that second unit role.
Interestingly, Cloud feels a bit more like a true point guard and it opens up a question about how Ionescu once again fits. Sab is a primary ballhandler and has been on the record discussing how she needs that ability to excel. But I really like Cloud as a distributor and wonder how the two of them play off one another. Even though Breanna Stewart is coming off a surgery to start the regular season, Cloud gives them enough of a floor raiser in the backcourt that you could probably slow play her return and be alright by midsummer. In any case, New York is once again back at the top of the contender race here. Everyone else is going to be chasing them but I think that’s a win for the W. The biggest media market has a budding dynasty with marketable stars in a period of time when the sport is seeing exponential growth. That clickity clack sound in your head is Cathy Engelbert cashing checks.
4. Connecticut is officially in full rebuild. What does that mean for Marina Mabrey?
It really feels like Marina Mabrey and her agent overplayed their hand in the public sphere. If the Sun were comfortable trading Cloud to the Liberty, it leads one to question whether or not they would’ve been okay to deal Mabrey had things been handled a bit differently on her end. It’s pretty clear that the rebuild is on and for the long haul, with Connecticut receiving New York’s 7th overall pick of this draft and a first rounder in 2026 (which will presumably be in the end of the draft). The big question now is if the Mohegan are serious about turning this franchise into a competitor in this iteration of the league. It’s a cold business world but I don’t love the idea of ripping away ownership from one of just two tribal sports management groups to put a team in Boston instead. Uncasville legitimately can work and a certain type of star can absolutely be interested in living on the bougie Connecticut coast in the summer.
But if you’re committed to rebuilding from the ground up, that has to include long term plans for things like facilities and other add-ons that will keep your young stars happy.
Despite what people may say, I do like some of the pieces that are on this Sun roster. Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Jacy Sheldon are good pieces to build around. Leila Lacan is a legitimate star in France and should be a fun player in the states. Tina Charles is on the back end of her career arc but will be a good focal point. If I had to project out a starting five it’s probably Lacan, Mabrey, (A Rookie, I’m guessing), Tina Charles and Olivia Nelson-Ododa. It’s not a playoff lineup, by any means. But it’s not a team going 10-30 the way some folks might think. I’m also a big believer in Rachid Meziane as a coach so maybe I’m sunshine pumping.
A deal for Mabrey is still entirely possible and I’d be surprised if something doesn’t happen before the 2025 WNBA trade deadline. But as far as getting Mabrey out of Uncasville before the season begins? I think that window is closed. I feel for her, because it’s a totally understandable impulse to want to move after your first gamble didn’t pay off. But that’s the thing about bets. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.
5. Folks, the WBIT field is awesome. Give it a watch this season.
For those that are just getting into women’s March Madness this year, the WBIT is a two year old tournament that was started by the NCAA. In the past, there was a WNIT, which was for all intents and purposes a privately owned enterprise that wasn’t the greatest arrangement. There was a lot of pay-to-play, not a lot of prize money doled out and it just didn’t feel like it had the juice of being an adequate secondary tournament.
One of the deftest moves the NCAA has made in recent years is the creation of the WBIT to add some novelty right around the time the sport is starting to see an influx of interest. But this year is a particularly fun field given the amount of bid stealers in the mid-major conferences. If you count up the amount of regular season league champions in this field it’s actually pretty remarkable. Then add in the teams that you expected to make a run in their conference tournaments and fell just short and you have an awesome field. For reference we have…
James Madison: Sun Belt Regular Season Champion
North Carolina A&T: CAA Regular Season Champion
Missouri State: MVC Regular Season Champion
Hawaii: Big West Regular Season Champion
UNLV: Mountain West Regular Season Champion
Southeastern Louisiana: Southland Regular Season Champion
UAlbany: America East Regular Season Champion
Portland: WCC Regular Season Champion
UTSA: American Regular Season Champion
That’s a lot of really good basketball teams, folks. And that’s before you get to top end mid-majors like Quinnipiac (28-4), Mid Tenn State (25-8), Gonzaga (22-10) and others that have either star power or had at-large cases. Even the high-majors here are interesting teams with their own storylines, from a first year coach at Virginia Tech, an injury riddled Colorado that’s persisted through adversity or Stanford, in the most unfamiliar of territory not being in the NCAA Tournament.
The winner of last year’s WBIT was Illinois, who is an 8 seed in March Madness this year. Typically, whoever wins these brackets is instantly a team to watch for the following season or includes an up-and-coming coach that should be on your radar.
But while all eyes will understandably be on the Big Dance, the second dance isn’t too bad either. It’s got great basketball and is worthy of your attention. So give it a watch and, by the way, the title game is on ESPN2. Game on.
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