Five Out: The #2 curse, Fairfield is the fun story of the year, Jeff Walz is Heisenberg
Andrew’s five thoughts on women’s hoops. February 5th, 2024.
The end of January brought with it some of the best performances we’ve seen in women’s college basketball this year. Juju Watkins set a single game scoring record with 51 points at USC. Caitlin Clark followed that up the next day with 38 points and 12 assists. Dyaisha Fair’s 38 vs. Boston College was a Syracuse career-high. LSU scored 106 points in a 40 point victory. Gonzaga scored 104 and won by 65. Now we turn the page to February with Tournament season looming on the horizon.
1. The #2 ranking is officially cursed.
In the last three weeks we have had three number two teams in the AP Poll. Iowa fell and cleared the way for UCLA. The Bruins lost and in came Kansas State. Now Kansas State is out. Call it the churn of the conference schedule but it feels a bit cursed when both Lauren Betts and Ayoka Lee end up with injuries (more on Betts in a second). Iowa is back at number two this week and will likely hold the spot for a couple weeks. Penn State could give them some trouble but it’s a better chance that the Hawkeyes regular season is made or broken in Bloomington on the 22nd. One thing it does lay bare is that from the 2nd spot down, the parity in this sport is as good as it’s ever been. The top 25 has repeatedly and regularly flipped and flopped this year. But at the top is South Carolina and the big question is whether or not someone can knock them off the perch. It doesn’t appear anyone in the SEC will this year at least.
2. UCLA has a (lack of) Lauren Betts problem
Let me say this upfront: we, as media or fans, are not entitled to non pertinent game information as it relates to injuries. If someone goes down in the run of play it’s completely fine to ask about the nature of an injury, their recovery and when they’ll be back in the lineup. But in this case, Cori Close and the Bruins have not disclosed the reasons for Betts’ absence and have implied that it doesn’t have to do with basketball. So I’m comfortable waiting until Betts is back and simply asking the postgame or midweek “how is she doing?” and leaving it at that. At the same time, eventually the absence becomes a story. Without their 6’7 star center, UCLA has regressed significantly. They’ve lost three of their last four and looked overmatched on Sunday in Maples Pavilion against Stanford. That’s concerning given that there is still plenty of talent on this roster. But the frontcourt injuries are starting to pile up. Betts, Emily Bessoir and Lina Sontag are hurt. We haven’t seen much, if anything, of Izzy Antsey either. That’s four of the Bruins 7 rostered forwards. Angela Dugalic and Christeen Iwuala are good players but Betts added a completely different look and dynamic as a rim protector and post threat on both ends of the floor. If Betts returns, things will stabilize but right now the outlook is worrisome. The Pac-12 is starting to separate between its tournament haves and have nots. While UCLA is still positioned well for March, a tumble could give them a bracket draw that would’ve seemed inconceivable a month ago. Off the floor, we are just hoping that Betts is okay, mentally and physically.
3. Oklahoma is alive!!
So…how about the Sooners? On certain down-bad corners of WBB Twitter you might hear the term Soonussy accompanied by complaints and discussions surrounding another OU loss. But this team is far from those doldrums of the non-conference where double digit losses to UNLV and Princeton had many wondering what the Sooners ceiling was this year. While they’ve had the benefit of health in a way other Big 12 rivals haven’t, Jennie Baranczyk and her team have stepped up to the occasion and now sit atop the conference standings. Skylar Vann has been the engine this year but has found another gear, scoring 19 points or more in six straight games. Wins over Texas and Kansas State have buoyed their tournament resume but there’s still the matter of Baylor lurking in just a couple weeks. Even with a couple major games ahead, that Oklahoma is in this position is a testament to Baranczyk’s ability to get her team refocused in Big 12 play. Now we’ll see just how good they are this February.
4. Fairfield is the best mid major story this year.
If you’re unfamiliar with Fairfield University, you might be familiar with Lou Lopez Seneschal. The current Dallas Wing and former UConn sharpshooter started her career with Joe Frager’s Stags. Frager retired in 2022 and Fairfield brought in Carly Thibault-DuDonis. Yes, she is the daughter of Mystics head coach Mike Thibault. But she is on the way to making a name for herself as an elite head coach (she was a capital-E elite recruiter for Minnesota with Lindsay Whalen). After a 15-15 first season, the Stags came back this year and are 19-1. They’ve won 17 straight, breezed through the MAAC field and their only blemish (if you can even call it that) is a three point road loss to Vanderbilt in Nashville. The Stags have a star freshman in Meghan Anderson who has scored in double digits in all but one game this year. I asked assistant coach Blake DuDonis what makes this group special.
“We've got a team that, every day, is committed to being selfless, tough, accountable, and grateful,” he told me. “We share the ball on offense and play at a very high pace, and our depth allows us to do that for 40 minutes.We really care about each other off the court and you can plainly see that carry over to the court as well.”
The Stags still have another month to play but as we mentioned last week in the column, they are a team to keep an eye on for a possible upset in March. Oh, and keep an eye on Thibault-DuDonis for any high major jobs that come up in the next year or two.
5. Jeff Walz somehow keeps on doing it
I feel like Jesse Pinkman sometimes. Eyes watering, a mix of sadness, anger and frustration boiling up. As Jeff Walz walks off the floor with another win, I feel the miscarriage of justice bubbling up in my body. At last I let out a primal, deeply felt “HE CAN’T KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH IT”. Only there’s no Hank Shrader in my life to tell me he won’t. Jeff Walz will. He’ll just keep doing it. I’ll keep thinking the turn is coming. The down year. The 9 or 10 loss season where the Cards bounce out of the tourney early. Where the portal catches up to them or recruiting falters behind flashier, newer money. But nope, Jeff is there. The one who knocks. Here’s a statistic for you. Since 2016, Louisville has been to an Elite Eight or better every year. No matter what, Jeff Walz is inevitable. They may not be the best watch. But all they need is Kiki Jefferson scoring, Olivia Cochran defending and a way to frustrate their opponents and get them out of rhythm. We have a month left in ACC play but Louisville is atop the standings and doesn’t look to be slowing down. I’ll probably talk myself into a Louisville upset. “They’re not the same team they usually are”, I’ll say. And when I least expect it, there will be Jeff. Getting away with it. And leading Louisville to a deep tournament run most likely.