Five Out: Dyaisha Fair deserves some flowers, Dawn Staley's next act and more Pac-12 chaos
Andrew's thoughts on the world of women's hoops. February 26th, 2024.
We are, at long last, in the home stretch of the women’s college basketball year. Several teams stand on the precipice of an ever-shrinking chasm between the regular season and postseason, hoping to make a jump into the Big Dance. We’ve got plenty of things to discuss so let’s get to it.
1. A robust middle of the Pac is making a Tournament push.
A shout to friend of No Cap Space and one of the Pac-12’s most delightful feline trolls, EquityBruin, who uses the term ‘A Robust Middle’ to classify an interesting tier of good-but-not-great teams in the conference of champions. In the case of women’s hoops, the middle refers to teams 7, 8 and 9 in the conference.
Coming into this week, most bracketologists had the Pac earmarked for six or seven postseason bids with Washington State as the only team near the bubble. Now, it appears that there are three teams — that 7, 8 and 9 spot — that have legit bubble cases.
Arizona beat Stanford in Maples Pavilion for the first time since 2001. Washington clipped Oregon State and, Washington State, while lacking a marquee win this week, has wins over Gonzaga, UCLA and South Dakota State buoying the resume. Where it gets really interesting? Basketball reference lists all three schools in the Top 32 of strength of schedule. In fact, the entire Pac-12 is in the Top 32.
Each of the aforementioned three teams now boasts at least two Top 25 and a set of solid non-con wins over Tournament bound mid-majors. Does the Committee reward a gauntlet of a conference schedule? They should. But just below is a case for something different…
2. Several mid-majors have two bid cases that should be taken seriously.
We do this dance every year in March. A power conference team with an unimpressive record and resume sneaks into the Tournament as a 10 or 11 seed when we probably could’ve seen a better mid-major team be rewarded for an excellent season. Every now and then, a Horizon or Summit League has two teams with undeniable cases or there’s a bid stealer (like the WCC last year).
This year, more than others, it appears that there are several leagues with legit two bid cases…
Missouri Valley Conference: Drake and Belmont are the teams to watch here. Alison Pohlman’s Bulldogs gave Louisville a serious scare in March last season while Bart Brooks’ Bruins have two 5-12 upsets on their resume in each of the last two NCAA Tournaments. Both play an exciting, movement oriented and sharpshooting style of basketball with Tourney resumes to prove it. Regardless of how conference tournaments go, they both should be in the discussion.
Atlantic 10: The A-10 has always had contending teams especially in recent years. Last season, UMass and Rhode Island both got the shaft which made the WNIT more interesting but was cold comfort to those who wanted a shot in the madness. This year, St. Joe’s and Richmond are in the same position. The Hawks only three losses are to a fully healthy Utah, Richmond and a road upset loss to VCU. Richmond’s non-cons aren’t as impressive but they’ve rounded into form behind a balanced attack that sees four players averaging double figures. At minimum, a deep WNIT run is in play. At most, both have some juice to move into a First Four.
Ivy League: The most egregious March snub last year was Columbia. At some point, we have to let Abbey Hsu cook in the Big Dance. The senior became the fourth Ivy Leaguer ever to surpass 2,000 career points and led the Lions to their first EVER win over a Top 25 opponent in a victory over Princeton this weekend. As a team, Columbia would probably like those games against Georgia and Florida back but the four point loss early in the year vs. Duke was an indicator of the Lions potential to put the fear of God into teams that take them lightly. As for Princeton, we know what we have here. Kaitlyn Chen is a force, Carla Berube runs her system to near perfection and the Tigers are a popular Ball-Knower™ pick to upset someone in March.
Horizon League: I’ve written about Green Bay in a previous column and may have something else on them in the future (head coach Kevin Borseth is a fascinating story) but their resume is impressive now. A win on the road over Creighton and at home over Washington State should be enough to keep them in the discussion. My concern is that Cleveland State, their counterpart atop the Horizon League, doesn’t have the non-con resume to justify a bid on their own. Both teams are absolutely deserving. Aside from a three point loss, CSU’s only loss early in the year was to Iowa and that’s forgivable. Maybe the Vikings win the conference tournament and the Committee values the Phoenix’s Top 25 victories. But if GB wins, there should still be a world where Cleveland State gets a look.
MAC: Tricia Cullop’s Toledo Rockets were the toast of the first round when they ran Iowa State completely off the floor last year. Quinesha Lockett is back leading this team from the backcourt while Sophia Wiard has established herself as an elite distributor and defensive disruptor in the MAC. Ball State is another Cleveland State type story in that there aren’t signature non-con wins but plenty of good ones. The Cardinals have wins over Georgia and Pitt which, while not a hang-your-hat on it type win, is a win all the same. They’re a top 30 unit and MAC best in three pointers made. Their losses are to Notre Dame and UConn and they’re 12-2 in conference play. Like the other conferences, you have to wonder as a commissioner if it’s best to have your ‘lock’ team take a dive to help secure another bid. The problem is, we shouldn’t have to think that way at all.
WAC: I am a believer in both Molly Miller and Jarrod Olson. If I’m a Pac-12 team in need of a new head coach in the next two years, those two and Lindy La Rocque at UNLV are my first phone calls. Miller’s Grand Canyon Lopes surprised those on the west coast by upsetting Arizona State then handling a tournament-bound Mid Tenn State. They’re 10th in the nation in defensive rating and 13th in points allowed per game. Cal Baptist (a fascinating story in their own right) beats teams with threes and rebounds and have one of the best players we don’t talk about in Chloe Webb. Buy stock now and if you can, watch that WAC conference title game.
3. Dawn Staley’s next act is here.
‘What exactly is Dawn Staley’s next act?’, you may be wondering. Does Dawn Staley even have to have a next act? I think so and only for this reason. We can talk about legacy and being in a tier all her own (which has merit!), but she’s really left chasing just the two giants at this point. While Staley doesn’t have the longevity of a Tara Vanderveer or Muffet McGraw yet, I think she’s generally a half step above that tier. There are titles, consistently deep tournament runs and an ownership of the SEC that now dates back a decade. She’s the greatest SEC coach of the modern era and, one could argue, the greatest coach in the current evolution of the game as well. The win streak in conference play is at 29. Since CoVid, South Carolina’s record vs. its’ southeastern counterparts is 58-3.
Saban numbers.
Now it’s time to big game hunt.
It’s important to note up front that the landscape of women’s college basketball isn’t the same as it was in the days when Geno Auriemma and Pat Summitt ran the show. While you can still stockpile elite talent as SC does, the talent around the country has become so good that you can’t sharpie in national champions anymore. And that matters when we have these legacy discussions. Staley’s title runs should be taken with context without reducing it to “Geno and Pat played plumbers” like we see in the NBA. With that said, I think that is Staley’s next legacy arc. In the Aliyah Boston years, the Gamecocks were upset by Stanford first in 2020-2021 and then Iowa in 2022-2023. Hardly a blemish when that recruiting class goes to three Final Fours and wins a title in that span. Ultimately that’s still dominance any way you put it.
So what’s left? National titles. Two in three years. Back-to-Back. Those kinds of moments in March that take you from demigod to all-mother.
To put her in a GOAT territory would be, at least in my opinion, a bit presumptuous given the other two on the list but I still think she exists in a tier between what we call elite coaches and legendary ones. She already owns the SEC. That was proven yet again this weekend. Now I want to see the legacy race. Maybe that might be a little First Take-y but coaches are just as much drivers of the game the way players are. How we stack up these accolades does matter. Few, if any, have had the impact beyond the game that Dawn has had. Whatever her final numbers are won’t matter in comparison to that. But even still, why not have these conversations? I will, if for no other reason than I think Staley is one of those once-in-a-generation people that can step to that Herculean task and potentially conquer it.
4. Dyaisha Fair deserves her flowers.
Lost in the understandable hype of Caitlin Clark topping Kelsey Plum and Pete Maravich atop the all-time scoring lists, Syracuse guard Dyaisha Fair has gotten bucket after bucket in relative obscurity. Those in the know understand her, her game and the impact she’s had on basketball in the state of New York. But the mainstream attention hasn’t sunk in even as she passed Brittney Griner on the all-time scoring list and has Jackie Stiles in her sights.
At 3,302 points it isn’t out of the question that, by the end of the NCAA Tournament, Fair will have passed Stiles (3,393) , Kelsey Mitchell (3,402) and will only sit behind Plum and Clark.
From a coverage standpoint it makes sense why we are where we are. The vast majority of Fair’s points were scored at Buffalo. Mid-majors don’t usually garner that mainstream juice: ask Zaay Green (UA Pine-Bluff), McKenna Hofschild (Colorado State), Starr Jacobs (UT-Arlington and now UAPB) and on and on…
After transferring and following head coach Felisha Legette-Jack to Syracuse, she had to contend with a rebuilding year that kept the Orange out of the general discussion. And there is, of course, an ever-present discussion about racial equity in coverage of the stars of this game. Some may use the fifth year excuse as a reason for a lack of buzz but I don’t buy that. You have to put the ball in the bucket. Point blank period.
Regardless of how we got here, Dyaisha Fair’s light deserves to shine in this moment. One of the craftiest and dynamic playmakers of the last five years, she’s a player that lists Kyrie Irving among her favorite athletes and scores like him. Buffalo likely doesn’t make their Tournament runs without her and Syracuse is clearly not in the March picture like this without her.
She deserves to be celebrated, honored and elevated for not only her role in leading two Division I programs but breaking records while doing it. Down in Section I of New York, Saniya Chong was the legend that put the area on the map in the 2000’s. Dyaisha Fair is the same figure in Section V. Edison High’s finest.
And if you don’t know, now you know.
I watched Fair in person in 2022 when the Bulls gave Tennessee a scare in Thompson-Bolling Arena and it was must-see TV. If you know what’s good for you, tune in to Syracuse this March. I promise you won’t be disappointed.
5. LSU may do the thing again…
I can’t believe it. Well, maybe I can. Maybe I just didn’t *want* to believe it. But LSU really feels like they may do the thing again. After a season opener loss to Colorado, the Tigers swept through another average non-con with one notable exception (an 82-64 win against Virginia Tech). Despite two road losses to Auburn and Mississippi State, it once again appears the only team Kim Mulkey’s team is chasing is that group up in Columbia, South Carolina.
LSU, at this very moment, feels like its’ rounding into form. They’ve won six straight and are winning comfortably even on days when the style of play isn’t exactly aesthetically pleasing (looking at that Tennessee game on Sunday). They remain the top rebounding team in America and the second best on the offensive glass. They get to the line more than anyone and make more free throws than anyone. Some of the defensive metrics don’t jump out at you but they’re a top 20 unit by defensive rating and top 10 offensively.
While Angel Reese always manages to get a conversation going, the return of some of the shit talking and swagger actually feels like a rediscovery of the mojo. It also helps when you get a 26 point effort out of Hailey Van Lith. Kim Mulkey, for all her faults, knows how to win in March. The Tigers have done it before and it feels like the might be poised to make a deep run again.
A special shoutout for Kieonna Christmas…
Not college basketball related but good lord look at this stat line from Fonda-Fultonville senior Kieonna Christmas.
11 points, 20 rebounds, 11 assists, 10 steals, 10 blocks.
You didn’t read that wrong. It’s a QUINTUPLE-DOUBLE. I didn’t think something like this was even possible! When it first popped up on my timeline I thought someone had messed with the infamous Tony Snell 0’s meme. But nope, it’s legit.
We at No Cap Space are all about highlighting the entirety of the sport and the incredible women in it so even if she’s not playing college ball yet, Kieonna Christmas is worthy of a mention in Five Out.