Five Out: Player of the Year contenders, Felisha Legette-Jack's Coach of the Year case, South Carolina continues to surge
Andrew’s five thoughts on women’s hoops. February 13th, 2024.
After a long week of work at Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas, Five Out is back with some expanded women’s basketball thoughts. With the context of a new AP Top 25, we’ve got some new information to help guide our five thoughts.
1. Felisha Legette-Jack is a bonified Coach of the Year candidate.
At this point, I think Dawn Staley has the Nick Saban/Lebron James issue when it comes to awards. She just keeps piling on elite season after elite season and if Coach of the Year was to award the best coach in women’s college basketball, she’d win it by a landslide every year. But to me, Coach of the Year is an indicator of doing the most given the roster and expectations going into a season. Staley is a contender in this category as well, but Syracuse’s Felisha Legette-Jack feels like the one who should be at the top of the list at this point in the year. Tasked with a major program and culture cleanup, Legette-Jack took a roster that was picked to finish 9th in the ACC and is now knocking on the door of winning the conference outright. They’re a game back of Virginia Tech and the Orange just won (albeit controversially) at home against Louisville. The home stretch is favorable with a big test against No. 6 NC State to end the regular season. If Cuse, led by star scorer Dyaisha Fair, can make it through the finish line then she, Dawn Staley and Oregon State’s Scott Rueck feel like the three finalists.
2. It’s time to start talking about Oregon State as a Final Four or National Title Contender
Oregon State feels a bit like last year’s LSU in that we didn’t have a lot of good non-conference data on them. They had home wins against some solid teams, from Villanova to Arkansas-Pine Bluff to Jackson State, but how much of that was a true indicator of ceiling? We have the answer now. The Beavers are on Stanford’s heels and a half game back from Colorado for the Pac-12 regular season title. They swept the rocky mountain schools (No. 22 Utah, No. 8 Colorado) in what is widely regarded as one of the west’s hardest road trips and get No. 9 UCLA and No. 10 USC at home. At this point, I have a hard time justifying the Beavs’ No. 11 ranking as they sure look and feel like a top five or six team in the nation. They’ve answered every test to date and have all the pieces that make up a title contender (elite big, elite sixth woman, defensive guards and microwave spot up shooters). I make this mistake pretty regularly when saying ‘I wonder how they’d match up against South Carolina’ but it sure feels like they’re one of the few teams built to contend with the Gamecocks roster makeup. The issue is…well…South Carolina sure feels inevitable. Speaking of!
3. South Carolina is once again in a class of their own
Dawn Staley is the best coach in women’s college basketball. I don’t think that’s up for debate anymore. But what she’s been able to do in getting her underclassmen prepared for the moment of being the team with the target on their back is really impressive. This was a team that, coming into the year, I thought would slip a few times against other programs that saw Aliyah Boston head to the WNBA and believe that now was finally their chance. Instead, the Gamecocks have responded by developing another generational big in Ashlyn Watkins. Even with Kamilla Cardoso on international duty, South Carolina didn’t miss a beat. Te-Hina Paopao is in the Naismith Player of the Year conversation and Raven Johnson’s development continues to surpass preseason expectations. There is some cause for caution in that we thought the Gamecocks were a lock for the title game last year. But even in a down SEC, it’s hard to imagine anyone catching this group before they reach Cleveland. Some may take issue with it, but it feels like the torch has officially passed from Geno Auriemma to Dawn Staley, if it hadn’t already.
4. Creighton and Gonzaga are the two biggest March mysteries
They’re a pair of top 20 teams with solid resumes. They combine for five total losses, all to current projected NCAA Tournament teams. They’ve breezed through most of their conference schedules with minimal hiccups. So why do I have such a weird feeling about Gonzaga and Creighton? The Bluejays are just two seasons removed from a legendary tournament win over Caitlin Clark’s Iowa and one of the more improbable Elite Eight runs we’ve seen in quite some time. Lisa Fortier’s Bulldogs have beaten down everyone in the WCC behind Yvonne Ejim (who should get some Naismith buzz) and have a non-con win over Stanford. So what gives? Where’s the confidence?
As it pertains to Creighton, I can get past a loss to Green Bay (look em up, the Phoenix are legit) and a six point drop to Marquette. But getting run off the floor, at home no less, against UConn by a score of 94-50 gives me pause. The Jays have another opportunity in Gampel Pavilion to prove that they can hang with some potential second weekend teams but when the Big East isn’t the power it was last season, opportunities to face quality competition are few and far between. As for Gonzaga, they haven’t lost more than two games in conference under Lisa Fortier since the 2016-2017 season. In that span, they’ve never made it out of the second round and have been upset a couple times. This, for my money, is the best Gonzaga team I’ve seen since the Courtney Vandersloot days and Ejim is a legit star. If there were a Bulldog team that could make a run, it’s this one. But I guess I see it as a prove it before I buy in fully, even in spite of all the metrics that show their quality.
5. What does Tennessee do with Kellie Harper?
It feels like the Vols are in a weird space with Harper. She’s not bad enough to warrant a firing but isn’t performing to the standard that’s expected in Knoxville. At 15-8, and with a tough final five games (No. 1 South Carolina twice, vs. No. 13 LSU, @ Vanderbilt and at home against Texas A&M), what we think about Harper and her future with the program could be decided in the next couple weeks. But much like the Vols fanbase I’m unsure of where I land. Clearly, the non-con struggles (four losses vs. ranked teams) don’t look good but they seem to pay some dividends later in the year. Tennessee has made the Sweet Sixteen twice in the last two seasons and were competitive in those elimination games against Louisville and Virginia Tech. At the same time, in the words of Split Zone Duo’s Richard Johnson, the standard is the standard. Losing to Alabama by 16 when you’re in a race to hold pace with South Carolina can’t happen. Especially not with a roster that people thought could theoretically compete with the Gamecocks this year. No one is asking for Harper to be Pat Summitt but there definitely appears to be a feeling of ‘are consistent third place finishes in the SEC enough for what Tennessee sees itself as?’ That, I guess, is the million dollar question.
Some side notes…
A couple shortlists of my own for National Player of the Year, Freshman of the Year, Mid-Major Player of the Year and Coach of the Year. Feel free to comment and let me know your thoughts! Top 5’s are in no particular order…
Naismith Player of the Year Top 5
Caitlin Clark, Iowa.
Cameron Brink, Stanford.
Kamilla Cardoso, South Carolina.
Jacy Sheldon, Ohio State.
Raegan Beers, Oregon State.
National Freshman of the Year Top 5
Juju Watkins, USC.
Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame.
Madison Booker, Texas.
Milaysia Fulwiley, South Carolina.
Mikaylah Williams, LSU.
Mid-Major Player of the Year Top 5
Yvonne Ejim, Gonzaga.
Chellia Watson, Buffalo.
McKenna Hofschild, Colorado State.
Zaay Green, Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
Kierra Wheeler, Norfolk State.
High-Major Coach of the Year Top 5
Dawn Staley, South Carolina.
Felisha Legette-Jack, Syracuse.
Scott Rueck, Oregon State.
Mark Kellogg, West Virginia.
Robyn Fralick, Michigan State
Mid-Major Coach of the Year Top 5.
Mollie Miller, Grand Canyon.
Shawn Poppie, Chattanooga.
Cindy Griffin, St. Joe’s.
Carly Thibault-Dudonis, Fairfield.
Robert Jones, Norfolk State.