Five Out: Is NC State a Final Four team? Can JuJu Watkins win a title on her own? Elite mid majors and a scoring record broken
Andrew’s thoughts on the world of women’s hoops. February 19th, 2024.
It’s the home stretch in the women’s college basketball regular season. If you live under a rock you may have missed a pretty huge thing that happened in our world this week. Caitlin Clark broke the career scoring record in NCAA Women’s Basketball and the discourse was TERRIBLE.
I have my own thoughts on where Clark lands in this whole ‘greatest player of all time’ discussion but maybe that’s a column for another time. For now, a big congrats to Clark and the indisputable fact that she has brought eyes to the game that wouldn’t otherwise be there. It doesn’t mean she’s entitled to coverage that contributes to the inequities that we see in the sport. But she also doesn’t deserve her light to be dimmed when, by all accounts, she just comes out and hoops and keeps it moving. Now let’s talk ball…
1. Is this really the year for NC State?
I’ll admit here that I haven’t given Wes Moore the fairest shake. From 2017-2022, NC State were a Sweet 16 team or better but for some reason, we were always left wanting. Close Tournament losses to Indiana and UConn have colored the glasses a bit but I’m starting to become something of a believer in the Wolfpack this season. While the ACC continues to be the most confusing conference in America, NC State has stood relatively tall among its competitors. They’ve notched wins against Colorado, UConn, Louisville and Notre Dame. The Wolfpack are guard oriented, a staple under Moore, but their bigs have a bit more versatility than bigs of NCSU past. Aziaha James might be the best guard we aren’t talking enough about. They don’t escape Georgia Tech over the weekend without her 30 points and 7 rebounds. Saniya Rivers has been a nice addition out of the portal (even when Dawn Staley loses, she somehow wins!) and Mimi Collins anchors a defense that has a decent bit of bite.
So what gives? What’s the rub? Why am I not all in on NC State? To start, a lot of the marquee wins have come in Raleigh. Virginia Tech swept the Pack twice this year and Syracuse is left on the schedule. There’s historical concern about how far they can get in March but at what point do you look at what’s in front of you and say, ‘this year might be different’? It’s also worth noting, some of those critiques can be levied at Oregon State, who is one of the darlings of this WBB season. Maybe it’s the past tournament losses obfuscating what is actually in front of us: that NC State is pretty loaded and Wes Moore may have another crack at a deep run in March. Now might be the time.
2. Can USC do it on Juju’s back alone?
Look, the Juju Watkins show hits every single time. Much like Caitlin Clark, you are tuning in for Juju to dominate and get a bucket on every possession. She owns the social media discourse when she plays and I have no doubt she will be the next media sensation once Clark heads to the WNBA. But, as we’ve seen with CC over the years, there can be a limit to the style of ‘give me the ball and let me lead you to the promised land’ once we get into March. Faced with a hefty challenge in a red hot albeit underhanded Oregon State team, Watkins and the Trojans walked away with a 58-50 win.
Here’s where it gets funky. Watkins finished with 18 points and 11 rebounds on 6-32 shooting. The Trojans finished with 7 assists as a team. There’s a lot of moments where it looks a little like the James Harden Rockets. Four players stand around and watch one player cook. Mind you, Juju is clearly good enough to do this. Watch that road win over Stanford. But come Tournament time how much can you rely on that? Head Coach Lindsay Gottlieb has inferred that this offense is about letting Juju do her thing. But there is so much talent all over this roster that it makes one wonder what Juju looks like if she plays more within a set system. Granted, I’m not the guy getting paid to do this but it has some shades of Caitlin’s time at Iowa. That first year, she took the Hawkeyes to the Sweet 16 nearly on her own. As a sophomore, the limitations of carrying a team were laid bare as Creighton upset Iowa in the second round. In the years since we’ve seen more players find themselves around Clark as opposed to in spite of her. I think Juju has it within her to grow season over season as a player that bring others in while doing what she needs to do when it calls for it. But she’s so good that you can’t tell her to not cook. Let your stars be stars. And the way USC continues to win, I can get down with that philosophy.
3. The mid-majors are Elite this season.
Each week we’ve highlighted various mid majors that have had amazing seasons and could be threats come March. But I think I’m amazed at just how many dominant mid majors there are at this juncture in the season. A lot could change and there could be multiple bid stealers once the conference tournaments finish up but there’s a list of teams that are just running away with their leagues. Gonzaga, Fairfield, UNLV, Ball State, Chattanooga, Florida Gulf Coast, Albany and St. Joe’s all have 3 losses or less each with just a couple weeks left in the regular season. Most of those teams have power conference wins in their non-con while others only losses this season have come via high-major teams or Top 25 outfits. Add in some teams that may make it through conference undefeated like Jackson State, Middle Tennessee State and Princeton and you’ve got one of the better mid major regular seasons in recent memory.
What makes it particularly notable is that all the above mentioned teams aren’t the only notable programs in their respective conferences. Grand Canyon and Cal Baptist are 21-5 and 20-3, respectively. St. Joe’s and Richmond are a combined 26-2 in conference play. We have these arguments every year but it’s a shame so many of these teams will likely end up relegated to the WNIT when they deserve a shot at the Big Dance. There’s great players and great coaches with fanbases that deserve to see their teams elevated. I would never advocate to expand and dilute the tournament past 68 but maybe this is our wake up call to give some love to the WNIT when it comes around. Or…select those dominant mid majors instead of middle tier high majors that sneak into a low bid. Either works for me.
4. West Virginia, Mountain Mamas
How about those Country Roads? The Mountaineers are one of the feel good stories I think we could stand to hear a bit more of. After Mike Carey’s retirement in 2021, West Virginia went out and hired Dawn Plitzuweit. At the time, Plitzuweit was coming off a Sweet 16 run with the University of South Dakota in which they were three points from one of the most improbable Elite Eight runs we’ve ever seen in the tournament. Last season, WVU went 19-12 and it looked like things were trending up until home (or something close to it at least) called. Minnesota poached Plitzuweit (a Wisconsin native with an extensive coaching history in the Great Lakes region) and West Virginia was left adrift for a time.
But in came Mark Kellogg, one of the best coaches in Southland conference history. After a roster flip, the Mountaineers are 22-3 and in the middle of a Big 12 title race in his first season at the helm. JJ Quinerly is a lock for first team all-conference and has been a double digit scorer every game of this conference season. Arizona transfer Lauren Fields has been a spark plug and WVU plays a fun and energetic style of basketball. Circle this week for the West Virginia: On the road at No. 7 Kansas State, who has Ayoka Lee back in the lineup, and a Saturday home matchup against Baylor. Game on.
5. Sac State, your February Feel Good Story
A story out of my own backyard, I have to give a shout-out to Sacramento State and head coach Aaron Kallhoff. In spite of last year’s Big Sky title run, this is not an easy place to win. Your home arena has less than 1,500 seats (seriously). And even with a University president committed to prioritizing transformational projects, the school just doesn’t have a donor base that can wave a magic wand and bring the Hornets up to speed. While they try to shed the image of being a commuter school, athletic director Mark Orr has a never ending challenge of building legitimate alumni and student support for a Big Sky team in a pro sports interested market. That Mark Campbell was able to do make a tournament appearance here is a testament to his abilities that were on display at TCU before injuries derailed his inaugural season. Kallhoff, in his first D1 head coaching job, had a full coaching and roster turnover. The Hornets started this year 1-19. It would’ve been really easy for the wheels to keep coming off the wagon but this February has been encouraging. 4 wins of their last six, including a massive upset over Northern Arizona. Their two losses came by just six points apiece. Hornet guard Benthe Versteeg set a school Division I record in single-game assists (14) in their win over Weber State.
Yes, the record isn’t pretty. That 5-20 is a far cry from the NCAA Tournament appearance that was on the floor last year. But credit to coach Kallhoff, his staff, and his players. They haven’t given up and the foundation is being laid for success down the road. Even with all the challenges outlined, you can still win and win big here. I’d bet on Kallhoff in the long term and on the university leadership around him to make this program every bit the perennial contender that Sac State football has become.