Five Out: The next great "best player" debate, Oregon State could win a title, midseason mid-major primer
Andrew's five thoughts on women's hoops. January 29th, 2024.
The upsets keep happening as we round out what was a January to remember. A couple teams earned major wins to cement a tournament resume while others are finding themselves in more and more precarious positions. So let’s dive into what we learned this week.
South Carolina is indeed inevitable.
Like I said last week, doubt Dawn Staley at your own risk. The Gamecocks went to Baton Rouge and played in front of a sold out PMAC, got LSU’s best shot and still walked away with a win. Bree Hall’s go-ahead 3 pointer with 1:14 left in the game sucked the air completely out of the arena as all five SC starters finished with double figure scoring.
They then followed it up with a 91-74 win over a 17-3 Vanderbilt team that should be a tough out in March. Kamilla Cardoso has made the leap into the next South Carolina front court star and while she may not be an A’ja Wilson or Aliyah Boston, she certainly is enough of a centerpiece to win a national title with.
Oregon State has arrived.
The Beavers have been one of the more difficult teams to assess this year simply because of their schedule. They didn’t play a single true road game in the non-con and their only two losses were on the road to USC and UCLA. So this weekend was always going to be the sample that we needed to figure out what Oregon State is. We found out rather quickly. The Beavs are a legit third weekend NCAA Tournament team.
They’ve got balance in the front court and have the personnel to match you up a bunch of ways. The emergence of freshman guard Donovyn Hunter, who had her best weekend as a college player, is also something to watch nationally. She was able to guard Colorado’s Jaylyn Sherrod, a national player of the year shortlister in her own right, and then tortured Utah’s overmatched backcourt in Sunday’s win. 18 in the AP Poll is too low after this weekend. They’re a Top 15 team. Maybe even better.
Kansas State may just really be that good.
Count me among one of those that thought the Wildcats were done after the announcement that Ayoka Lee would be out for around four weeks with an injury. At the time, K-State had a three game stretch in front of them that included a road trip to Baylor and a matchup against one of the Big 12’s premier bigs in BYU’s Lauren Gustin. While the results were closer than they would’ve been with Lee in the lineup, the Wildcats walked away winners in both games. That counts for something.
This will be the weekend where we find out their ceiling without their dominant frontcourt star. Lee is averaging 19.8 points per game this season on 67.7% shooting. But the Wildcats have leaned on a group effort and individual breakout games by the likes of Elle Maupin and Gisela Sanchez. We know how talented K-State’s guards are but road trips to Oklahoma and Texas will show just what the sum of the parts actually is.
Hannah Hidalgo vs. Juju Watkins is the next great WBB debate.
A few years ago, two dominant freshman made a case to be Naismith Player of the Year candidates. While South Carolina fans stumped for their superstar center in Aliyah Boston, UConn and Iowa fans pounded their chests about the next two generational guards. In the years since, the Paige Bueckers - Caitlin Clark rivalry hasn’t quite carried the same juice it had when the two first came onto the scene. But over the last couple weeks, it’s felt pretty clear what the next great battle is: Hannah Hidalgo and Juju Watkins.
Just a week or two ago, Watkins seemed to be in the conversation to be a National Player of the Year contender and Freshman of the Year frontrunner. But now, Hidalgo has had her arrival on the big stage. In a hostile Gampel Pavilion, Hidalgo paced the Irish with 34 points, 10 rebounds and 6 assists, hitting several key shots and outperforming her contemporaries in white and navy. Hidalgo is a lockdown defender as well as a dominant scorer. She’s teetering on 50-40-90 shooting splits right now. The people demand a Notre Dame - USC battle on the hardwood. It’s past due.
Get acquainted with a few Mid-Majors now.
We’re rounding the turn into the NCAA Tournament and that means we’re going to take a look at who will be a couple fun upset picks in March out of the mid-major conferences. We’ll do deep dives a bit later in February but here’s a couple names to keep in mind and a sentence about them.
Florida Gulf Coast: Karl Smesko’s team does this every year in the ASUN. The Eagles can kill you with tempo and hot shooting. An upset special every year.
Green Bay Phoenix: GB has already got a couple of major skins on the wall, beating Washington State and Creighton. The Horizon League is competitive and they may catch an underachieving high-major in March.
Fairfield Stags: Meghan Andersen is the best freshman we aren’t talking about and the Stags are 17-1 with their only loss being by three points on the road at Vanderbilt.
Chattanooga Mocs: Shawn Poppie has gotten Chattanooga up to speed and sports a win over Mississippi State to boost the resume. Jada Guinn is electric and the engine of the SoCon frontrunner.
UNLV Lady Rebels: By this point you should know Lindy La Rocque’s Rebs. But the question is if this is the year where they catch someone slipping in their bracket. Third time’s the charm, right?