One Big Thing In Every NCAA WBB Conference Tournament: Wednesday, March 12th
Oregon State has cemented itself as America's team after a WCC Tournament Final upset but who else can steal a bid? We have more games to cover in our daily Tourney Guide!
Hello, friends! We have officially made it to March Madness, Part One. Conference Tournaments kick off this week and, while there are few that take place a bit later in the month, most of the mid-major action is centered around the next half-dozen days. The high-majors also dominate the week with the SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten starting Tuesday as well.
Instead of giving you viewer guides to preview the entirety of the Tournament, we’ll be giving you daily content outlining what we think is the biggest storyline, game or player to watch in every bracket across women’s basketball. Think of it as a combination of a preview and a watch guide.
Best of all, this content is 100% free for everyone in service of growing the game and giving you a chance to find the best hoops the sport has to offer. Let’s get to it!
Folks, THE OREGON STATE BEAVERS ARE ONCE AGAIN AMERICA’S TEAM. I don’t know if you can say enough about head coach Scott Rueck and guard AJ Marotte. After losing 3/4 of their roster in the transfer portal amid conference realignment, no one would have blamed the Beavers for calling this a lost year amidst a long rebuild. Instead, OSU did the improbable, making a WCC Tournament run and stealing a bid to put them right back into March Madness. I’ve got a column for our Ball-Knowers coming later today on this so if you want to read it in full, consider a free trial or a full subscription ahead of the NCAA Tournament. You won’t be disappointed!
One Big Thing In The…
AAC Championship- Final
Folks, Lindsay Edmonds and Rice might just mess around and do it again. One year after stealing a bid out of the AAC, the 17-16 Owls are on the precipice of repeating the improbable feat. They upset Temple in the tournament semifinal and now see the longtime class of the American, South Florida, with a March Madness bid on the line. Recent history — two losses to the Bulls in the regular season — would tell you that this is an uphill climb but after two seasons, I’ve learned to not assume anything when it comes to Rice in March. They’re the chaos agents we’ve needed, the anarchists that redistribute the wealth of dominant teams and give it to those that finish in the middle of their respective conferences. The success starts and stops with senior Malia Fisher, who has seemingly woken up from a mid February slump to take the lead in this Cinderella run. Do they have one more in them? I guess we’ll find out!
Big Sky Championship - Final
We got our Brawl of the Wild title game after all! Montana managed to upset Northern Arizona despite a 29 and 14 performance from Sophie Glancey and a 27 point game from Nyah Moran and now head to the Big Sky Tournament final. This was more of a team effort but a lot of props goes to 5’9 junior guard Mack Konig, who put up 29 points in the wind, following up a 20 point outing in the upset over Idaho. In spite of all the suspected off-court issues this year, the Lady Griz are back in their rightful place at the top of the Big Sky. Waiting on the other side of the floor is their bitter rival, Montana State. The Bobcats are already playing with house money given that this is the best season in program history but getting that Tournament bid has been elusive. They won the regular season in 2022-2023, for instance, but ended up on the outside looking in. Which makes the stakes of this matchup, against the proverbial older sister in UM, all the more juicy. From a narrative standpoint, I don’t know if you’ll find a better game than this one on Wednesday.
Big West Championship - First Round
We have another gauntlet bracket in the Big West, as four teams get ready to compete in the opening round to face two teams on a bye, who will then face two more teams on a bye. Right now, all signs point to Hawaii or UC Irvine being the autobid from the conference but tournament season teaches us that anything is possible. Could an 18-12 UC Santa Barbara make a run deep into this bracket? It’s entirely possible. UC Riverside and Long Beach State will probably be the game of the night as both squads are pretty evenly matched on paper. 16-13 vs. 16-14 and each with a 12-8 conference record. But The Beach has the edge here in regular season wins, beating Riverside by 15 in the first meeting and 6 in the second. Given what we just saw Oregon State do in the WCC, it’s fair to not assume that the gauntlet assures a top two seed goes through to the NCAA Tournament. So keep an eye out because we might be see something we weren’t expecting in the Las Vegas suburbs.
CAA Championship - First Round
The CAA matchups are pretty tilted in the opening round, with 7-22 Hampton facing 12-17 Stony Brook and 3-24 Northeastern taking on 10-19 Towson. But since we have an HU grad on the staff here at No Cap Space WBB, my one big thing is seeing whether or not the Pirates can make Chauny proud even if it’s just for a single round. It’s been a tough year for the Lady Pirates, who dominated in the early 2010’s before beginning a bit of a slide as a program. But they’ve gotten good production this year from senior Temple transfer Jasha Clinton, who leads the team in scoring while posting her most efficient shooting numbers as a college player. Hampton also did grab a road upset over this very Stony Brook team earlier in the season so it’s not an impossible proposition.
Conference USA Championship - Quarterfinal
We’re into the quarterfinal of the Conference USA championship and that means we have two days worth of matchups in Huntsville, Alabama. To be quite honest, I did not expect this level of parity in C-USA this year. After Mid Tenn State’s upset over Louisville in the NCAA Tournament last year and bringing so many players back I assumed that this would all be a cakewalk for the Blue Raiders. Instead, Liberty came seemingly out of nowhere to contend for the conference while Western Kentucky channeled the Lillie Mason and Clemette Haskins years to finish 22-8 and 13-5 in conference play. That means that MTSU has some legitimate challengers for the C-USA crown in the bracket. On paper, I still think they’re the most talented of the group but does that mean it will be enough when the ‘want to’ becomes a key component of winning and losing? If the three aforementioned teams make it to the semifinal, I think it might be one of the most compelling races for an autobid.
MAAC Championship - Quarterfinal
The two teams to watch here don’t seem in substantial trouble of being upset. Instead, I’m watching Fairfield and Quinnipiac to see if they can impress in these games enough to meet in the final and make the case for the MAAC as a two bid league. The Bobcats are 26-3 with wins over Princeton, Harvard and Southland regular season champion Southeast Louisiana. Fairfield has high major wins over Arkansas and Wake Forest and another home win against Villanova. They nearly knocked off a top 25 Oklahoma State on the road as well. It feels like both have proven their mettle against Tournament bubble teams and deserve to at least make a case even if they don’t win the autobid. Some statement performances could help that claim this week and, assuming they both make it to the final, can make a joint statement to the committee that they’ve earned consideration at the very least.
MAC Championship - Quarterfinal
The MAC has been a fun league for a lot of this year and we’ve got the chance for some A-10 levels of chaos. Buffalo and Bowling Green is an intriguing quarterfinal matchup while Miami (OH) and Kent State are evenly matched. Of course, everyone is chasing Ball State and their star guard Ally Becki, the MAC Player of the Year. But the x-factor for the Cardinals as of late has been 6’1 forward Alex Richard, who was injured for a chunk of the non-con but has come back and been the Cards leading scorer and a dominant force on the boards in conference play. Only Toledo and Kent State have managed to beat Ball State this year in the MAC and in a one game format anything can happen. Additionally, keep an eye on Chelis Watson from Buffalo, one of the top scorers in America when she’s on. If there were ever a time for her to assert her dominance, it’s now.
MEAC Tournament - Quarterfinal
The MEAC Tournament opens with two of their four quarterfinal matchups that include the top two finishers in the league, Howard and Norfolk State. To me, the one storyline of this bracket is easy: can the Spartans achieve perfection? As we’ve mentioned here before, Norfolk State has won the league three times in a row and now have the MEAC Player of the Year in Diamond Johnson and Coach of the Year in Larry Vickers. It’s been almost a decade since an HBCU program has had a run as dominant as Norfolk and right now they’re projected to land as a 13 seed in the NCAA Tournament, per ESPN’s Charlie Creme. Can a statement walk through the MEAC elevate them one seed line higher and give them the chance to be one of the highest ranked HBCU’s in the NCAA Tournament ever? I sure hope so. NSU has deserved it for the season they’ve had and, for my money, they’re one of the best potential stories this March.
Mountain West Championship - Final
So with UNLV out, we officially have a bid stealer in the Mountain West. In past seasons, it would’ve been fair to argue that the Rebs could’ve had an at-large shot but I think their non-con just didn’t have enough meat in the win column to push them past any of the current bubble teams. I don’t have any inside information but losses like what UNLV are the ones where a coach has 72 hours to make one of the biggest choices of their life and might be a little preoccupied with things outside of the game. Could that loss be a canary in the coal mine for an Arizona State move? Entirely possible! Anyway, let’s get to the finalists because they’re great stories on their own. Stacie Terry-Hudson is on the precipice of bringing San Diego State back to a place of prominence within the women’s basketball world, getting the Aztecs to March Madness for the first time since 2012. On the other end, you have one of the great individual stories of the year. Wyoming’s Allyson Fertig is as Wyo as Wyo gets. I would know. I covered her when she was a freshman at Douglas High School outside of Casper where she led one of the greatest prep teams in the state’s history. They won three state titles and would’ve won a fourth if not for COVID. She was the MWC Freshman of the Year and ends her four years as the MWC Player of the Year. But she’s never made an NCAA Tournament. It would be a perfect end to her four years to bring Wyoming to the Tournament for the first time since 2021.
SWAC Tournament - Quarterfinal
For the last few years, the SWAC has been a predetermined outcome as Tomekia Reed’s Jackson State teams ran through the conference en route to an NCAA Tournament bid. But this season there is more parity in the league than there’s ever been and that makes this one a potentially fascinating tournament. Two games divide first and fourth in the SWAC this year, with Southern leading the way followed by Alabama A&M, Texas Southern and Jackson State. So who will be able to come out ahead? I’m really interested in AAMU and their newly minted head coach Dawn Thornton, who came over to Huntsville from Arkansas-Pine Bluff this past offseason. She’s an up-and-coming coaching name to watch and a run in the tournament here would cement her status as a mid-major/high-major hire of the future. But can Southern capitalize on a remarkable regular season championship? Can Jackson State manage to keep the standard of NCAA Tournament appearances going? If you want a Tourney watch on the basis of parity, the SWAC has all you need and more.
Southland Tournament - Semifinal
Both of these Southland semifinal games are great for different reasons. In one corner you have Southeast Louisiana, enjoying their best season ever under Ayla Guzzardo (whose name has come up in a couple of coaching vacancy discussions) taking on Incarnate Word who has made an NCAA Tournament as recently as 2022. In the other corner is Stephen F. Austin, the longtime mid-major power, in a new league and facing Lamar, who finished 17-3 in league play this year. So there’s the matchup that has big upset potential and the other that will be pitched combat between two evenly matched teams. The Southland, as it so happens, has a little bit of everything here. From a narrative standpoint, I’d love a Southland final of SE Louisiana and SFA. The Lady Lions have never made an NCAA Tournament before while the Ladyjacks are one of the most accomplished mid-majors in March. That’s the stuff that gives you all-time great games. But to get there, both need to get by talented opposition. Game on in Lake Charles.
WAC Tournament - Quarterfinal
All eyes are on Grand Canyon and head coach Molly Miller. It was expected that her name would be in almost every high-major coaching search given the success that she’s been able to achieve. She told me over the offseason that she didn’t have a lot of interest moving on from GCU for a couple reasons: the university’s faith based mission, her working relationship with A.D. Jamie Boggs and the relatively wide open nature of women’s basketball in the region. With the former Pac-12 teams in the Big 12, GCU has the opportunity to become a Gonzaga of sorts in the Southwest. Granted, all of that goes away when a team like Arkansas presents you a check that can change you and your family’s life. What folks don’t realize is how fast these jobs come about. They can materialize and ask for an answer all within three days. What does that mean for GCU in the WAC Tournament? As I mentioned with UNLV, wins and losses can be the canaries in the coal mine. So we might glean some information about Miller’s intentions by what we see on the floor this week.