One Big Thing In Every NCAA WBB Conference Tournament: Saturday, March 8th
It's semifinal day for multiple NCAA conference tournaments at the mid and high major levels. What games do you need to prioritize? We got you covered.
Hello, friends! We have officially made it to March Madness, Part One. Conference Tournaments kick off this week and, while there are few that take place a bit later in the month, most of the mid-major action is centered around the next half-dozen days. The high-majors also dominate the week with the SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten starting Tuesday as well.
Instead of giving you viewer guides to preview the entirety of the Tournament, we’ll be giving you daily content outlining what we think is the biggest storyline, game or player to watch in every bracket across women’s basketball. Think of it as a combination of a preview and a watch guide.
Best of all, this content is 100% free for everyone in service of growing the game and giving you a chance to find the best hoops the sport has to offer. Let’s get to it!
One Big Thing In The…
A-10 Championship - Semifinal
We almost turned the chaos meter to ‘extreme’ in the A-10 but in the very end, Richmond and St. Joe’s were able to avoid a couple serious upset bids from Duquesne and Rhode Island. Where does that leave us? With probably the best mid-major final four you’ll find this year. The A-10 is regularly a league that deserves to have more than one bid. The problem is that every postseason one of those teams falls in the conference tournament and it effectively destroys their chance. Now, we have a shot here for Richmond and George Mason to make cases provided they can make it to the Finals. But the real chaos scenario? St. Joe’s and George Mason in the final. The Spiders, I think, are good enough to be an at-large bid this season. George Mason currently is on the bracketology bubble. So if they make a final and fall to the Hawks, might that mean the A-10 could make a push for three bids? Or will Richmond win and Davidson upset GMU and we end up with just one bid for them, as expected? That’s what’s at stake.
ACC Tournament - Semifinal
Duke vs. Notre Dame is important, don’t get me wrong. I’m particularly interested in the Olivia Miles of it all. Since the Irish’s win over Duke, she hasn’t had the best set of performances. Foul outs, inefficient shooting from the field and from deep, turnovers, you name it. She’s the x-factor that raises the team’s ceiling so they’ll need her here. But if there’s one big thing, it’s in the other game. Who of North Carolina and NC State is legit this year? We got a treat in Chapel Hill the last time these two teams played, with the Tar Heels escaping by locking down Aziaha James on the final possession. Now, we get it again in a neutral Greensboro, which I’m sure will be filled to the brim for an in-state rivalry. Wes Moore has exceeded all expectations with this group while Courtney Banghart has done yeoman’s work with this UNC group. This is the highest ranked both teams have been at the same time since the 2000-2001 season. Game on.
ASUN Tournament - Quarterfinal
In the ASUN quarterfinal, we see all the top teams in the conference enter the bracket. Florida Gulf Coast will take on Austin Peay but Bellarmine remains my team of interest here. They take on Central Arkansas who finished second in the conference regular season standings. Can the Knights pull a stunner on the Sugar Bears? It’s entirely possible! Both squads met just once in conference play, which was a 68-60 Bellarmine win in Knights Hall. I’ll tell you straight up: it was an ugly ass game. Neither team shot over 33% from the field but, in spite of that, Bellarmine outscored Central Arkansas 27-13 in the 4th to win the game. This all depends on what you want out of the ASUN Tournament. Do you want to see FGCU get challenged by Central Arkansas in a potential final or would you rather early upsets? Beauty is in the eye of the beholder here. Have fun!
AAC Championship - First Round
We have just one matchup in the first round of the AAC Championship and it’s between the two lowest finishers in the conference. So what’s interesting? The Charlotte 49ers are. This is former Jackson State head coach Tomekia Reed’s team and they’re facing a rebuild from the ground up. I was curious about the hire — it felt like given Reed’s success a bigger school would call — when it first happened and it’s clear that there’s still a bit of a bias against HBCU coaches in spite of the fact that they do less with more. With that in mind, we get to see a coach really build a program here and a win to open the AAC Tournament would be a pretty good signal to fans of the 49ers that there are building blocks in Charlotte. Once we hit the second round, we’ll see another up-and-coming coach aim to do the same thing in Ashley Langford and Tulane.
Big 12 Championship - Semifinal
Can anyone knock TCU off late in the 4th quarter? It’s starting to become an open question. Right now, the Horned Frogs have a bit of 2023 LSU to them in that they manage to win games even though it looks like, over and over, that they should lose them. Baylor and Colorado both looked like they had a shot to unseat TCU in the last two games, which were essentially a Big 12 regular season championship game and the conference tournament quarterfinal. Those are win or go home stakes and, despite how poorly they’ve played in those games, they’ve won. That type of stuff matters in March (and eventually April). How they handle West Virginia’s pressure and stifling defense will be interesting given how much trouble the Frogs have had with generating offense in the last couple of games. I also don’t foresee WVU going 3/18 from three and 18/59 from the field like they did the first time these teams met in conference play. But these are the games where champions are made. If the Frogs find a way to either get right on offense or grind out a win again, it might be time to have a serious conversation about their ceiling in the next tournament to come.
Big East Tournament - Quarterfinal
So, we all know what’s gonna happen here. We’re all good with that, right? UConn is going to win this bracket barring some really insane circumstances or a run by Creighton unlike any we’ve seen in recent years. In fact, my biggest thing in the Big East is an open question. Are there any real upsets on the table here? Xavier managed to steal a win and make some chicken salad out of the chicken shit that has been their conference slate (they went 1-17 in Big East play). But, given the fact that this team won a single game last year in general, that’s a win for the Musketeers. Outside of that one feel good game, I expect Seton Hall to beat them, Creighton to beat Georgetown, Marquette to beat Villanova and UConn to beat St. John’s. It would probably be the biggest surprise of the day if we got an upset from anyone in this bracket so hey, let’s see if someone can pull off a shocker.
Big Sky Championship - First Round
I think Aaron Kallhoff deserves a ton of credit, even if the record doesn’t show it. His Sacramento State roster was completely destroyed after Mark Campbell left for TCU (not that that’s Mark’s fault, it’s just the nature of the beast). Kahlaijah Dean graduated, Katie Peneueta transferred to NC State, Izzy Natabou went to Iowa State and Jordan Olivares finished her career at CSU Bakersfield. With what was essentially a patchwork roster, the Hornets limped to a 6-25 record that, at one point in 2024, was 1-18 and 0-8 in Big Sky play. Then, his star freshman Summah Hanson transferred to UC Irvine. No one would’ve blamed him for another lost season in Sacramento. Instead, Kallhoff refreshed his roster, brought back Peneueta and finished 14-17 and 7-11 in the Big Sky. The Hornets take on Eastern Washington and have a chance to win a game or two in Boise and really assert that the turnaround is in progress. I like Aaron and think he has the juice as a head coach so it would be cool to see them get a win to open the Tournament.
Big South Championship - Semifinal
While the Big South is kind of blah in terms of talent this year, it makes for a really fun final four. I have no idea who will win this whether it be Winthrop, High Point, Radford or Longwood. HPU has lost to the latter two teams but not the former, who happens to be their semifinal matchup. Radford and Longwood, meanwhile split their regular season series. It’s pretty likely that whoever comes out of this conference will be a 16 seed in the NCAA Tournament but we’re watching these games for late game nonsense and potential upsets in the 4th quarter. I don’t think there’s a better conference outside of the A-10 (which is the inverse considering it’s four good teams) that has the chance for anyone to win the conference tournament title.
Big Ten Tournament - Semifinal
Initially, my one big thing was going to center around underdogs with major momentum but then Hannah Stuelke’s game winner was just short of hitting the mark. So we have Ohio State against UCLA in one semifinal which, I’ll admit, doesn’t intrigue me a ton. There’s a clear size disparity up front and it looks like UCLA has gotten a little bit of their swagger back since their loss to USC in the regular season finale. Instead, I’m fascinated by the other underdog with major momentum: Michigan. The Wolverines shot the ball extremely well and took advantage of Maryland’s truly heinous first quarter to cruise to the semifinal. What makes this game against USC so intriguing is the fact that we didn’t get Syla Swords the first time these two teams met. As we’ve seen over the course of this year, the Wolverines are a very different team with her in the lineup. I still think USC has a size advantage here that will be exploited via Kiki Iriafen but the Swords vs. Watkins matchup is one I’ve been quite literally waiting all year for. To say I’m excited to finally see it is an understatement.
OVC Championship - Final
We get a great season rubber match with a trip to the NCAA Tournament on the line in the OVC. Lindenwood got the better of Tennessee Tech in January, which led to both teams having just two losses going into the regular season finale. So the last game of the year before the conference tournament was essentially a championship game between these two teams. Tennessee Tech won. Now, they meet again in the conference title matchup. That’s the kind of drama we have only reserved for the Big 12 or Big Ten. Instead, we get it a day early and in the OVC. To me, that makes it worth a watch. On top of that, it’s the only championship game of the day, making it effectively the first bid that will be locked in for the NCAA Tournament. If that doesn’t get you excited, then I’m not sure what will.
Patriot League Championship - First Round
I don’t want to use the term ‘lovable losers’ because, at the end of the day, these are kids busting their ass to play their best. But I’m also not sure what another term would be for American, who is in their conference tournament sporting a 1-23 overall record and 1-17 mark in Patriot League play. Seems like they’re gonna lose, right? Well…until you consider the fact that their only win of the year happens to be against their current opponent: Lafayette. Now it’s also worth noting that the win was a 54-52 victory that was followed up by a 72-55 loss in the next matchup. But this is March and anything can happen! I’ll say this: if American manages to get a win over Lafayette it might be the biggest upset of any game, big or small, in women’s college basketball this year. So, to the most underdog of underdogs, know that America is behind you…American!
SEC Tournament - Semifinal
We know that Texas and South Carolina have Final Four ceilings. Whatever opinions you may have about the Gamecocks this year — and trust me, I’ve got some thoughts especially when it comes to Milaysia Fulwiley’s usage at this point in the year — they keep winning. That’s the Dawn Staley effect. She’s the best coach in women’s basketball right now and, whatever qualms you may have, they’ll always find ways to win because that’s what she does. So instead of looking at whether or not the favorites have the gene of dominance, I’m actually more interested in if Oklahoma and LSU have the juice to compete. The Tigers semifinal matchup with the No. 1 Longhorns will probably go down to the wire. But what of the Sooners? They are built in the mold of a Lisa Bluder team, which makes sense given Jennie Baranczyk’s roots at Drake (a Lisa Bluder institution, for those who know). For years, the issue has been the lack of a centerpiece big that can get you out of jams when the passing lanes are clogged and the shots aren’t falling. They got that in Raegan Beers. Then they go out and beat Kentucky in the quarterfinal, asserting that they’re easily a second weekend team. Are they any more than that? That’s the big question I want to know because if they manage to do the improbable, we have to re-evaluate some of our bracket predictions in the next tournament.
Summit League Championship - Semifinal
I’ll admit, I did not see this coming in the Summit League. Not one but two upsets in the quarterfinals means we see 12-18 North Dakota and 12-20 Kansas City head to the conference tournament semifinals. Does either team have one more shocker in them against the top of the Summit? South Dakota State feels like a bit of a lock given the mountain of data Aaron Johnston has provided us with over the years. Plus, they beat North Dakota pretty handily in their two regular season meetings. But might Oral Roberts get caught looking ahead to a chance to finally unseat the Jackrabbits in the Summit League championship? There’s a possibility! The Golden Eagles have flirted with disaster a couple times in conference play, avoiding an upset to Denver with a 68-67 win and skating by North Dakota 83-80 in February. They’ve been fine against Kansas City and that makes them different from North Dakota State, who lost to the Roos in conference play and then in the quarterfinals on Friday. But you know what, I kinda like the chaos. Why not!
Sun Belt Championship - Quarterfinal
There is egg on my face in the Sun Belt! Shout out to one of our OG readers and subscribers,
, who not only is dripped out in Georgia State homefield merch this tournament season but now gets to rep it proudly as the Panthers dream run in the Fun Belt Gauntlet continues. Can they manage an upset over Coastal Carolina to punch a ticket to the semifinal on Sunday? I’m excited to see. They and Marshall have been the darlings of this tournament so far. For my money, the Thundering Herd might be the best story of the week. At 12-19, I wasn’t expecting much from the first round on. But they beat South Alabama, which was to be expected. Then they beat Texas State. Then they beat Louisiana. Then they beat App State! Could they manage to upset Troy and continue one of the most difficult runs a team can have in March? I sure hope so. It would be an absolute blast to see them advance to the semis and catch a beneficial break in an Arkansas State team that is second in the league but plays like a third or fourth seed at times. So between Georgia State and Marshall, we’ve got underdogs in the Fun Belt. Let’s see if they can keep it up.WCC Tournament - Third Round
Over in the WCC, we could be setting up some similar runs. There aren’t as many teams in the league so the tournament isn’t as deep in the opening rounds but Pacific and Loyola Marymount won their matchups and now see St. Mary’s and San Francisco, respectively. After that are the former Pac-12 teams in Oregon State and Washington State followed by Gonzaga and Portland. Could my favorite Tiger team from Stockton manage to make some noise? Or maybe LMU senior guard Naudia Evans has one last magical run left in her. With my beloved Pac dearly departed, this is the only women’s hoops tournament in Las Vegas and, having made the pilgrimage to the Orleans myself a few times, I always enjoy the vibe of the WCC Tournament. Maybe we get some madness in Sin City. Or, instead, we leave it at one of the last few casino blackjack tables that isn’t completely tilted towards the dealers. Here’s hoping.
