Pac-12 Tournament Preview: Get Ready For The War
The best conference in the regular season has one last hurrah in the place where it all began.
Las Vegas is the true capital of the United States. It is our moral center, whether we have the capability of admitting it or not. The money, the excess, the wanton greed entice everyone on some level. It tricks you, empowering you with a willingness to accept risk beyond means and find the unbridled confidence to believe that you have the answers to always win. And if you lose, it’s okay because it’s about the fun of the moment. It’s a short term dopamine hit off a promise of riches and a chance to compete. It’s here, at this altar of capitalism, under starry lights and stained hotel hallways, that the Pac-12 goes to die.
Long live the Queens.
It feels fitting, in many ways. This all began with a series of calamitous media decisions, punctuated by a 10,000 dollar a night Aria hotel suite and ending in fracture and failure. A series of big bets, beyond ones’ means, failing one after the other and leading to a takeover by better moneyed and better positioned super conglomerates.
Long Live the Queens.
But it doesn’t need to end with a whimper. At least not in women’s basketball. In the face of certain death, every Pac-12 sport seems to have found a final gasp of air. This winter has been no different. It’s been the best product we’ve probably ever seen in the history of west coast women’s basketball. Programs have finally found their breakthrough roster. Others have returned from the brink of their own collapse. While some have simply continued to dominate the same as it ever was. With games stashed away on the Pac-12 Network, the conference broke containment into the greater women’s basketball world, earning some long deserved respect and recognition. Then, they broke containment even more, with celebrities of all stripes turning up at various games across the conference. And wherever they go next, the Pac-12 left us with names that will resonate forever. Those who took what remained of a sad situation and made it a thunderous exit. Juju Watkins, Cameron Brink, Charisma Osbourne, Raegan Beers, Jaylyn Sherrod and on and on.
Long. Live. The Queens.
So with the eulogy written, let’s get into the preview. I hope you can forgive the self indulgence. This is my conference. My first breaking story as a reporter was JR Payne to Colorado. Some of my favorite athlete/coach interactions and stories have come from this tournament. They’re going out with a bang and we’re gonna talk about them right. So let’s go down the list and give you some predictions on the way out. Pac-12 Forever.
1. Stanford
Players to Watch: Cameron Brink, Kiki Iriafen, Talana Lepolo
What’s Compelling Here: Tara Vanderveer is again Pac-12 Coach of the Year. Cameron Brink is the Pac-12 Player of the Year. Kiki Iriafen is the Pac-12 Most Improved Player of the Year. Defying all logic, and much like their pseudo-rival South Carolina, the Cardinal are right back on top this season. What is compelling is how the guards play in tournament play. This is where on-ball defense gets ratcheted up and where athletic guards typically win out. Stanford has had a hard time in March since Kiana Williams left for that reason. Do they have the backcourt to complement what is a national title winning front?
Predicted Ceiling: Champions.
Predicted Floor: Semifinal loss to Oregon State.
2. USC
Players to Watch: Juju Watkins, Rayah Marshall, McKenzie Forbes
What’s Compelling Here: Juju Watkins is the draw but how the rest of the team performs around her is the big question. Forbes has established herself as a secondary scorer. Marshall proved she can hold down the floor with Watkins absent (notably in the Trojans win on the road over Arizona). But if the attention is overwhelmingly on Watkins, how will USC respond? She has been the focal point all year but this is also her first experience in this environment. She gets grace as a freshman but I have a funny feeling she rises to the occasion.
Predicted Ceiling: Champions.
Predicted Floor: Quarterfinal loss to Washington.
3. UCLA
Players to Watch: Charisma Osbourne, Lauren Betts, Kiki Rice
What’s Compelling Here: It’s been proven that UCLA is a totally different team with Lauren Betts available. Two of their five losses came with her out of the lineup. The other two losses were in overtime to Utah, an 8 point road loss to USC and a buzzer beater road loss to Oregon State. What’s compelling is that this is the best team Cori Close has ever had. This feels like her window and her time with a veteran guard, dominant big and x-factor wing in Kiki Rice. The pieces are in place but it comes down to a Coach to bring it all together.
Predicted Ceiling: Champions.
Predicted Floor: Quarterfinal loss to Utah.
4. Oregon State
Players to Watch: Raegan Beers, Timea Gardiner, Talia Von Oelhoffen
What’s Compelling Here: Aside from Timea Gardiner, who now has a chip on her shoulder after not winning Pac-12 Sixth Player of the Year, the Beavers have Raegan Beers back fully healthy. With her at full strength, this team looked like they had a Final Four ceiling. What I like is that they have to go through Stanford again. The Beavs and Cardinal haven’t met fully healthy this year. Cameron Brink missed the first matchup. Beers the second. Stanford won both. Give me a third game to really figure it out.
Predicted Ceiling: Champions.
Predicted Floor: Quarterfinal loss to Colorado.
5 vs. 12: Colorado vs. Oregon
Players to Watch (Colorado) : Jaylyn Sherrod, Maddie Nolan, Kyndall Wetta
Players to Watch (Oregon) : Grace VanSlooten, Chance Gray, Phillipina Kyei
What’s Compelling Here: Colorado looked absolutely gassed to end the regular season. Jaylyn Sherrod plays a million miles an hour and the wear and tear showed. I’m looking at Kyndall Wetta’s performance in this tournament because of her status as x-factor. The matchup between Aaronette Vonleh and Oregon’s Philippina Kyei is interesting too. Oregon’s season has been unremarkable, to say the least, and is playing for pride more than anything here.
Prediction: Colorado will win but it’s dependent on the team we get. Does Oregon have a little last gasp of their own in a game that could be Kelly Graves’ last?
6 vs. 11: Utah vs. Arizona State
Players to Watch (Utah) : Alissa Pili, Jenna Johnson, Kennady McQueen
Players to Watch (Arizona State) : Tryanna Crisp, Jalyn Brown, Jaddan Simmons
What’s Compelling Here: This is really the only ‘meh’ game I see in the tournament this year. Arizona State’s rebuild post Charli Turner Thorne has been so substantial that the Sun Devils are far from a finished product. For Utah, this is the start of an exorcism. The Utes looked like they were Final Four bound last year before a fateful trip to the free throw line against LSU. They may not be the same team without Gianna Kneepkens (out for the year with an injury) but mentally this Tournament has the chance to be a way to get the mind right again.
Prediction: Utah should win without much issue. Arizona State feels like they’re improving but this is really year one for Natasha Adair and should be treated as such.
7 vs. 10: Arizona vs. Washington
Players to Watch (Arizona) : Jada Williams, Esmery Martinez, Breya Cunningham
Players to Watch (Washington) : Elle Ladine, Lauren Schwartz, Sayvia Sellers
What’s Compelling Here: This is one of two “Tourney or Bust” games in the opening round. Both teams are bubble-ish squads who need a win or two to cement a Selection Sunday case. Arizona has circled the wagons nicely after a couple midseason departures. A really good coaching job from Adia Barnes. Washington had a brutal midyear stretch in the Pac-12 but came back around to get ranked wins over Oregon State and Utah. Both teams are scary so who will be scarier?
Prediction: Washington feels like the pick here. Arizona has it on paper but the Huskies are back to the same brand of stifling defense they were known for early in the year. Watch out for Tina Langley’s squad as a sneaky upset pick.
8 vs. 9: Cal vs. Washington State
Players to Watch (Cal) : Marta Suarez, Ioana Krimili, Leilani McIntosh
Players to Watch (Washington State) : Bella Murekatete, Aster Tuhina, Eleonora Villa
What’s Compelling Here: The second “Tourney or Bust” game. Cal is more on the outside looking in than Washington State but still in the mix. The Cougs, on the other hand, probably just need one win to get in. Anything more than that and they’re assured a spot in the Dance. Astera Tuhina’s huge three pointer to beat Colorado in Boulder over the weekend feels like the kind of shot that galvanizes a run in March. Worth noting, however, Cal swept this matchup in the regular season.
Prediction: This feels like a true toss up. Both teams are fighting for their Tournament lives here but the Huskies did this once last year. They know what is required to make a run. This and Arizona vs. Washington are my must-watches of round one.