The 'Ball-Knowers' NCAA Watch Guide: Week of November 11-15
The Watch Guide rolls on, telling you who to watch and what games to tune in for in the world of NCAA women's hoops. Here's your must-watches for the week of November 11-15.
At No Cap Space WBB, we want you to know ball. We want you to be able to look at other folks who may not know ball and not look down on them but instead educate them because you do, in fact, know ball. But during the college basketball season that can be hard. There’s, at any point, 10+ games happening on the same day in a variety of time windows.
So on Mondays and Fridays, we will be releasing what we call the ‘Ball-Knowers’ NCAA Watch Guide. Essentially, it’s a handful of games that our staff picks for each day based on a couple different metrics: how competitive the game might be, if there’s a player we like or find interesting involved, if there’s a team to watch or if the game has implications for NCAA selection in March. It’s basically a guide to help you see the forest through the trees so that by the spring you’ll have a good idea of who is a threat to make a run in the Dance.
Here’s what we got on tap this week for you to see…
Monday, November 11
Drake vs. Creighton 7:00 pm ET, Creighton Online
Why it’s worth a watch: This game is poised to be some elite mid-major hoops. Drake’s Katie Dinnebier (18.1 PPG, 6.9 APG in ‘23-’24) is one of the best mid-major players in the nation which makes this worth the watch alone but the March implications are massive for Drake. For Creighton, this game comes directly before matchups with #13 Kansas St and #23 Nebraska, a win here would be great for the immediate momentum.
Must-Watch Score: 6/10
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Columbia 7:00 pm ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Columbia finds themselves in an interesting position with 2024 AP All-American Honorable Mention Abbey Hsu no longer on the roster. They themselves look different and other Ivy League schools such as Princeton lost their first game. They are still absolutely a roster that is a contender for the Ivy League NCAA slot, Harvard will certainly have something to say about it, but figuring themselves out early in the post Hsu era would be massive. Florida Gulf Coast themselves are in desperate need of a win after losing their first game of the season to Davidson, 57-56. A win against Columbia could help put their loss out of sight and out of mind to allow them to start stacking some wins.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
Tuesday, November 12
Middle Tennessee State (C-USA) vs. Tennessee (SEC): 6:30 pm ET, SEC Network+
Why it’s worth a watch: The Blue Raiders passed a big mid-major test, stifling Grand Canyon in a matchup of elite mid-majors. Now they get to see Kim Caldwell’s high flying Lady Vols. It’s also a really good early season test for Tennessee, who will face size, speed and dynamic guards. The Vols feel like a favorite here but few players match the size of Anastasiia Boldyreva. If you saw this game in March, it would be a really fun 5/12 Tournament matchup.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
Richmond (A-10) vs. Fairfield (MAAC): 7:00 pm ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Probably the two best mid-major teams last year meet early in the non-con. Much like that Arkansas matchup, this game is Carly Thibault-DuDonis leaving no room to criticize a weak schedule for her Stags. The Spiders replaced several pieces but they still are a top end Atlantic 10 team this season and will either be a bubble/WBIT team. Fairfield can put another pelt on the wall here ahead of a road trip to Oklahoma State. If you love mid-major vs. mid-major games, this is the hipster matchup for you.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
UNLV (Mountain West) vs. Arizona (Big 12): 8:00 pm ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: It feels like we get this game every year, be it in March or in the non-con. I’m really impressed with Adia Barnes’ team so far after having some questions about the direction of the program. Her elite recruits in Jada Williams and Breya Cunningham are living up to the billing and get a good test against the Rebs in the late night window. UNLV has a couple blowout wins to open the year but this is the type of matchup they manage to win early in the year and lose in the Tournament. It’s all about building up experience for big moments and this team, who is replacing their all-timer star Desi-Rae Young, will get a good look at what kind of talent they have that can perform against the top levels of competition.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
Wednesday, November 13
Colorado State (Mountain West) vs. BYU (WCC): 1:00 pm ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Emma and Hannah Ronsiek combined for 50 points in the Rams win over Oregon State. The Creighton grad transfer was an early contender for MWC Player of the Year and she showed exactly why in Moby Arena. Depending on how UNLV looks against Arizona, this might be a matchup where we realize the Rams have a legit shot to win the conference this year. BYU handled Wyoming pretty well at home and look like they’ve got a legit player in freshman guard Delaney Gibb. It isn’t the flashiest matchup but it’s a deep cut game that can paint a picture of what kind of ball we’ll be getting out west.
Must-Watch Score: 6/10
Norfolk State (MEAC) vs. No. 22 Alabama (SEC): 7:00 pm ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: After a historic win over Missouri, Norfolk State gets an even bigger SEC challenge in a top 25 Crimson Tide team that definitely looks the part. Diamond Johnson and Kierra Wheeler against Bama’s Sarah Ashlee Barker and Aaliyah Nye feels like a made for TV matchup. I knock the must-watch score down quite a bit because I’m not all that sure it’s going to stay close late into the game. Sparty definitely has some friskiness but that game against a very down Missouri was pretty close all the way through. Does Norfolk have the three point shooting to stay on pace with Alabama is also a legit question. In any case, it’s at least worth a first quarter tune in. We don’t give HBCU’s enough credit across the board and NSU has earned a grade with their start to the year.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
Wisconsin (Big Ten) vs. South Dakota State (Summit): 8:00 pm ET, SDSU online
Why it’s worth a watch: Wisconsin is a team you haven’t heard much of as of late but this game could change your perception. At the very least, you have to watch Serah Williams at least once this season. The 6’4 junior is someone I think has WNBA talent and is the type of player that sometimes gets lost in draft boards because of a lack of name brand college and the limited roster spots available at the higher level. But she is an absolute baller. Her first two game splits are as follows…
vs. Wright State: 29 points, 12 rebounds on 52.4% FG
vs. Georgetown: 17 points, 16 rebounds on 53.3% FG
She’s legit and I hope a bigger Big Ten will allow people to see her and appreciate how good she is. On the other side of the coin, the Jackrabbits are coming off an early upset over Creighton and are not to be trifled with. Brooklynn Meyer is in the running to be one of the top mid-major players in basketball this year. It might end up being a game between two WBIT type teams but I have a feeling this is the game you switch over to in the 4th quarter to watch a tight finish.
Must-Watch Score: 6.5/10
Thursday, November 14
Creighton (Big East) vs. No. 10 Kansas State (Big 12): 6:30 pm ET, ESPN2/ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Ayoka Lee’s status is up in the air but the Wildcats didn’t seem to miss a beat, blowing out Belmont 82-56. The Bluejays are coming off a loss to South Dakota State and will have also played Drake by this time so the score might change depending on that result. But I still like Morgan Maly and Creighton is always an interesting team even as they try to figure out what to do now that Emma Ronsiek is gone. It’s clear they miss that production. K-State has gotten a pair of good games out of senior Temira Poindexter and their backcourt is consistently solid. I’d imagine it won’t be super close but it’s an early tune-in just to gauge how good the game is gonna be.
Must-Watch Score: 6/10
Grand Canyon (WAC) vs. Arizona State (Big 12): 6:30 pm ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Both teams are coming off a loss but this game has potential hot seat implications that bump the score up to a 7/10 on the must watch scale. I was high on both these teams entering the season from GCU as a plucky mid-major to ASU making a year 3 step in the right direction under Natasha Adair. But the Sun Devils fell to Arkansas State in alarming fashion, pouring in 96 points but giving up 100. GCU fought hard against Mid Tenn State but lost by 10. I favor the Lopes here and if they manage to get on track it’ll prove that Grand Canyon has it in them to be a competitive out against a high-major program. Conversely, this feels like a must-win for Coach Adair’s proof of concept, especially against an in-state team that is making a lot of investments in becoming a basketball powerhouse in men’s and women’s hoops.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
Vanderbilt (SEC) vs. South Florida (AAC): 7:00 pm ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: South Florida is likely the AAC favorite but the loss to UConn is hard to gauge. Is it a function of the Bulls not being that good or are the Huskies just back to doing Husky things? My money is on the latter. Walking out that logic, it feels like this game between USF and Vanderbilt is going to be at least a little more competitive than the game against UConn. The Commodores are taking their first road trip of the year but the players to watch are Khamil Pierre and Mikayla Blakes. To me, Blakes might be the underrated freshman that gets lost in the Jaloni Cambridge/Sarah Strong/Joyce Edwards hype train. She is absolutely in that tier and we need to keep an eye on her long term.
Must-Watch Score: 6.5/10
Eastern Washington (Big Sky) vs. Washington (Big Ten): 9:00 pm ET, B1G+
Why it’s worth a watch: Eastern Washington nearly knocked off Washington State to open the year, losing by one point in a down to the wire matchup. The Huskies, to my surprise, look a lot more interesting that I expected to begin the season. They’re certainly more dominant than they were last year against teams they need to be dominant against. But it’s worth noting we saw that in the non-con last season before the wheels came off a bit in Pac-12 play. EWU is a different caliber of opponent than Seattle U or Pacific and a win here would be huge for the Eagles postseason resume. It feels like one of those games where you’ll be able to project out a season based on the result.
Must-Watch Score: 6.5/10
California (ACC) vs. Gonzaga (ACC): 9:00 pm ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: The Zags got absolutely buried under a barrage of three pointers from Stanford but it doesn’t mean that the Bulldogs aren’t capable of being the kind of team they were last year. I fully expect them to come back and shoot a bit better inside and out (they were only 34.5% from the field vs. the Cardinal). This is a big one for Cal, who actually has a kind of fun non-con that includes Auburn, Michigan State and Alabama at Haas Pavilion. Charmin Smith started to show proofs of concept last year after a major rebuild in Berkeley. Now, with a roster that returns quite a bit of firepower from last year, she can make a statement in the early season which could start with a win over Gonzaga.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
Friday, November 15
Santa Clara (WCC) vs. USC (Big Ten): 3:00 pm ET, B1G+
Why it’s worth a watch: If Gonzaga ends up having a bit of a post Sweet Sixteen down year, Santa Clara feels like the team in the WCC to contend for a conference championship. Does that mean they are going to hang with USC? Probably not. But after that first win over Ole Miss, I think how the rotation and roster evolves with the Trojans is one of the more interesting non-con storylines to watch. The other three teams in the top four all have some degree of consistency. South Carolina, UConn and Texas all seem to have an understanding of roles and small tweaks will come here and there. But the Trojans are a team in the mold of a New York Liberty or 2024 Seattle Storm. It’s a collection of stars learning as they go. Does that mean they’re an instant watch? Not particularly (and for what it’s worth, I said the same about South Carolina last year). But unlike SC in 2023-2024, there feels like more in flux early with the Women of Troy and that’s worth keeping an eye on how it develops.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
No. 2 UConn (Big East) vs. No. 14 North Carolina (ACC): 6:00 pm ET, ESPN2
Why it’s worth a watch: The first big test for Paige Bueckers and co. is going to be the game of the week if you had to pick one. North Carolina feels like it’s found even footing after a couple wonky seasons. But a resurgent Husky crew that, at long last, feels healthier than they’ve been in past years is going to be a major test. If there’s one thing Paige has always gotten slack for — even from her own head coach, I might add — it’s her perceived passivity at times. This is the first game where we get to see if killer Paige has arrived this season. I expect a fun one from start to finish, even if I think it might result in a 10 point or more win for the Huskies.
Must-Watch Score: 9/10
Texas A&M (SEC) vs. No. 15 West Virginia (Big 12): 7:00 pm ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: West Virginia forced an absolutely ridiculous 44 turnovers in their win against Niagara. Sure, much lesser opponent. But it is a window into the type of team Mark Kellogg builds and what kind of game you can expect. Can Texas A&M handle that type of relentless pressure and ball hawking? It’ll be a good test for the SEC schedule that is to come. After an early season loss to TAMU-Corpus Christi, the Aggies have improved on defense and feel like they’re getting back to center. But a road trip to Morgantown is a tall order with legit March implications. If we get another stifling defensive performance out of WVU, it’ll be time to start projecting them into a better tier of team than they currently are in.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10