The 'Ball-Knowers' NCAA Weekend Watch Guide: Weekend of November 15-18
There's plenty of big games coming this weekend but which should you make a point to watch? No Cap Space WBB has you covered with another one of our watch guides...
At No Cap Space WBB, we want you to know ball. We want you to be able to look at other folks who may not know ball and not look down on them but instead educate them because you do, in fact, know ball. But during the college basketball season that can be hard. There’s, at any point, 10+ games happening on the same day in a variety of time windows.
So on Mondays and Fridays, we will be releasing what we call the ‘Ball-Knowers’ NCAA Watch Guide. Essentially, it’s a handful of games that our staff picks for each day based on a couple different metrics: how competitive the game might be, if there’s a player we like or find interesting involved, if there’s a team to watch or if the game has implications for NCAA selection in March. It’s basically a guide to help you see the forest through the trees so that by the spring you’ll have a good idea of who is a threat to make a run in the Dance.
The college basketball season is starting to take shape as we find out which teams are early contenders, who are surprises and who has some work to do. With each passing week, the watch guide rounds into form as well. Here’s what’s on tap this weekend.
Friday, November 15
Santa Clara (WCC) vs. USC (Big Ten): 3:00 pm ET, B1G+
Why it’s worth a watch: If Gonzaga ends up having a bit of a post Sweet Sixteen down year, Santa Clara feels like the team in the WCC to contend for a conference championship. Does that mean they are going to hang with USC? Probably not. But after that first win over Ole Miss, I think how the rotation and roster evolves with the Trojans is one of the more interesting non-con storylines to watch. The other three teams in the top four all have some degree of consistency. South Carolina, UConn and Texas all seem to have an understanding of roles and small tweaks will come here and there. But the Trojans are a team in the mold of a New York Liberty or 2024 Seattle Storm. It’s a collection of stars learning as they go. Does that mean they’re an instant watch? Not particularly (and for what it’s worth, I said the same about South Carolina last year). But unlike SC in 2023-2024, there feels like more in flux early with the Women of Troy and that’s worth keeping an eye on how it develops.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
No. 2 UConn (Big East) vs. No. 14 North Carolina (ACC): 6:00 pm ET, ESPN2
Why it’s worth a watch: The first big test for Paige Bueckers and co. is going to be the game of the week if you had to pick one. North Carolina feels like it’s found even footing after a couple wonky seasons. But a resurgent Husky crew that, at long last, feels healthier than they’ve been in past years is going to be a major test. If there’s one thing Paige has always gotten slack for — even from her own head coach, I might add — it’s her perceived passivity at times. This is the first game where we get to see if killer Paige has arrived this season. I expect a fun one from start to finish, even if I think it might result in a 10 point or more win for the Huskies.
Must-Watch Score: 9/10
Texas A&M (SEC) vs. No. 15 West Virginia (Big 12): 7:00 pm ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: West Virginia forced an absolutely ridiculous 44 turnovers in their win against Niagara. Sure, much lesser opponent. But it is a window into the type of team Mark Kellogg builds and what kind of game you can expect. Can Texas A&M handle that type of relentless pressure and ball hawking? It’ll be a good test for the SEC schedule that is to come. After an early season loss to TAMU-Corpus Christi, the Aggies have improved on defense and feel like they’re getting back to center. But a road trip to Morgantown is a tall order with legit March implications. If we get another stifling defensive performance out of WVU, it’ll be time to start projecting them into a better tier of team than they currently are in.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
Saturday, November 16
Miami (ACC) vs. Florida (SEC): 12:00 pm ET, SECN+
Why it’s worth a watch: A decent in state rivalry could lead to a somewhat competitive game if you don’t like the early slate of Saturday college football. If you want to learn a bit more about Tricia Cullop’s new look Hurricanes, this is the first quality test of finding out what it’ll be. Natalija Marshall has had a nice start to the year and Haley Cavinder hasn’t lost a step. Florida has looked good, even with the loss of Aaliyah Matharu right before the start of the season, but that was also against lower tier competition. Liv McGill is gonna be the new lead guard for the Gators.
Must-Watch Score: 6/10
Oregon State (WCC) vs. Minnesota (Big Ten): 3:00 pm, B1G+
Why it’s worth a watch: One of the first games of the Briann January Classic pits the Beavers against the Gophers. I’ve been really high on Minnesota as a surprise team this year. That combination of Mara Braun and Amaya Battle is lethal and should be a top half backcourt duo in the Big Ten. Oregon State lost to Colorado State to open the year but the grace is given in how new everyone is. Sela Heide and Kelsey Rees are basically the 6’5 twin towers and I expect a lot of the offense to run through them. But this will come down to how well the Beaver guards do against their Minnesota counterpart. A good game if you’re interested in what the Beavs might look like but also if you wanna possibly get on the Minny hype train early.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
Fairfield (MAAC) vs. Oklahoma State (Big 12): 3:00 pm, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: The last thing I expected from Fairfield after a 14 point road win over Arkansas was for the Stags to put up just 7 points in the first half of their home opener to Richmond. You didn’t read that wrong, by the way. 3 points in the whole first. 4 points in the whole second. I don’t expect that kind of shooting performance to happen again. What benefits the Stags is that the aggressive scheduling means a loss like that doesn’t loom extremely large in the Tournament conversation provided they can steal another high-major game from Oklahoma State. But I’d say the Cowboys are better than Arkansas, having blown out their three early season opponents. Ana Gret Asi is a bonafide scorer while their team rebounding has been a group effort. It feels like shooters vs. shooters and that can either be an electric or really tough watch. Hopefully it’s the former.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
No. 18 Louisville (ACC) vs. No. 20 Kentucky (SEC): 6:00 pm, SECN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Kenny Brooks has shown an early proof of concept in Lexington, winning three easy games but in really aesthetically pleasing fashion. Clara Strack, one of his Virginia Tech transfers, looks like another dominant big in the Brooks system while Georgia Amoore is working nicely with Dazhia Lawrence. Now, he sees a familiar foe in Jeff Walz and former ACC rival Louisville. Early returns on the Cardinals through one week are that Walz has managed to stabilize his program again. Tajianna Roberts is a freshman name to know for the future and Olivia Cochran while be a good early season test for Strack down low. Game of the day, if you had to pick one.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
Washington State (WCC) vs. Texas Tech (Big 12): 7:00 ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Wazzu has the benefit of being in the WCC with Oregon State this year so there will be a better conference strength of schedule than, say, the Mountain West. But you also need these kinds of wins because the benefit of the doubt being 20-10 was different in the Pac-12 than it’ll be now. For that reason, this feels like a really important game for a Coug team that has a pretty hefty non-con. Texas Tech wants to continue their hot start and winning this one probably means they’ll be 6-0 by the time they host Florida State on the 28th. The player to watch here is 5’8 Red Raider guard Jasmine Shavers who has averaged 16.0 PPG out of the gate and that’s with a below average 3 point shooting start to the year.
Must-Watch Score: 6.5/10
Sunday, November 17
No. 24 Stanford (ACC) vs. Indiana (Big Ten): 2:00 pm ET, FS1
Why it’s worth a watch: I’m really close to getting Cardinal-pilled folks. I’m gonna say that right now. The wonder with Stanford was what would happen to the team when the blistering three point shooting start to the year ended? Well, they went 5-20 from 3PT against UC Davis and won by 13 after a 20-9 fourth quarter. Nunu Agara is a bonafide frontcourt star in the making and the guards continue to have players step up (this time it was Courtney Ogden who had 16-5 on 60% shooting). Indiana will be a good test of like-for-like competitiveness but the Hoosiers have already tripped up once in non-conference play. The loss of Mackenzie Holmes is readily apparent and I don’t know if they have an answer for Agara. It’s hard to project seasons based on one game but this feels like one of those matchups where you can at least draw *some* conclusions about both squads afterward.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
No. 13 NC State (ACC) vs. TCU (Big 12): 3:00 pm ET, ESPN/ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: This game feels like it’s going to be a track meet in the best of ways. Mark Campbell’s Horned Frogs love to run, pick, roll, pop and score. Hailey Van Lith looks rejuvenated and, while uneasy for many I’m sure, Sedona Prince has been playing at an All-American clip (19.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 5.7 BPG). Granted, you gotta look at quality of opponent and that’s why this NC State matchup checks in so high on the Must-Watch Index. The Wolfpack are going to be relying heavily on Mallory Collier in the frontcourt. But it also wouldn’t surprise me if we saw more of the freshmen Tilda Trygger and Lorena Awou to match Prince’s size. The real battle will be upfront. Aziaha James, Saniya Rivers, Zoe Brooks against Hailey Van Lith, Madison Connor and Donovyn Hunter. That’s a battle you won’t wanna miss.
Must-Watch Score: 9/10
Butler (Big East) vs. Vanderbilt (SEC): 3:00 pm ET, SECN+
Why it’s worth a watch: If you haven’t jumped on the Mikayla Blakes hype train, do so now. The Rutgers Prep product is different and if she were playing for a top end team I really think she’d be discussed as the next great freshman women’s college basketball player. Through the first three games she’s been electric averaging over 18 points a contest. She’s got an excellent running mate in Khamil Pierre which is why Vandy comfortably beat South Florida on the road on Thursday. But Butler is coming off a win of their own: an upset victory over Indiana at Hinkle Fieldhouse. The Bulldogs are hoping this is the year they take a leap and the only reason the must-watch score is down a level is because Butler is a bog you down and beat you slow type team. If you love that kind of defense and scheme, this is the game. It’ll be competitive and a good win for either team but it may not be the most aesthetically pleasing. But that’s the joy of hoops: different styles for different fans!
Must-Watch Score: 6.5/10
Iowa (Big Ten) vs. Drake (MVC): 3:00 pm ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: The Hawkeyes may not look like the Caitlin Clark era team but they aren’t supposed to. What they have right now is legitimately really fun and only has the chance to get better as time goes on. This one has a high watchability score mostly because it’s offense between two Iowa schools off the Bluder school of pass and shoot. I’m expecting to see big numbers in this one and a really fun matchup between Lucy Olsen and Drake’s Katie Dinnebier. The Bulldogs were mostly playing catchup against Creighton in that loss earlier in the week but if the turnover numbers come down, I have a feeling this could be another fun installment in a really underrated in-state matchup.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
No. 16 Duke vs. South Dakota State (Summit): 3:30 pm ET, CBSSN
Why it’s worth a watch: South Dakota State in women’s basketball is like how college football fans talk about North Dakota State. Schedule them at your own risk. The one thing I respect immensely about Aaron Johnston is he ducks absolutely no smoke. They have Creighton, Duke, Oregon and Texas on their non-con before Summit League play starts. It’s done out of necessity given the strength of schedule after January but it also means we get to see one of the best mid-majors get to test its’ mettle regularly. Brooklynn Meyer is off to a great start to the year while the Jackrabbits distribute their minutes efficiently across nine players. But the Blue Devils also have that kind of depth and some real star power on their side. I love that Toby Fournier gets her first hostile environment trip as a freshman so early in the year. It’s not necessarily a loss that would make you think less of Duke if it were to happen but I know Kara Lawson wants this game to be an example of her team rising to the occasion in tough environments. But again, you go up to Brookings, you gotta live with the result
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
Monday, November 18
Grand Canyon (WAC) vs. No. 25 Oregon (Big Ten): 9:00 pm ET, B1G+
Why it’s worth a watch: GCU got a major win against Arizona State that, while not a Quad 1 type victory, was important for their tournament resume. What’s big for mid-majors isn’t just beating better high-major teams but avoid losing to really bad ones as well. The Lopes managed the latter and now try for the former. Oregon, for their part, cruised to a fourth straight win over North Texas 66-35. What’s impressive is how much of a change it looks like Kelly Graves has made early in the year. The benches have always emptied in blowouts but, for a long time, KG has trended towards slimmer rosters and concentrated minutes among 7 or so players. But he’s managing to rotate a lot of players especially at the guard position early and there’s a lot of versatility to utilize. The Ducks have the advantage up front and that’s likely where the game will be won but I’m gonna enjoy seeing how Oregon handles GCU’s defensive guard play.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
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