The Underdogs: Who has the best shot of challenging Team USA at the 2024 Olympics?
While the Americans are the prohibitive gold medal favorites, No Cap Space breaks down the rosters of their competitors.
The Olympics are in less than two weeks and women’s basketball will take center stage as one of the premier events in Paris. While Team USA is the prohibitive favorite, there are plenty of interesting teams to watch in this tournament. So we decided to give you a primer on each group, their top players, breakout candidates and their threat level to Team USA. The best team to beat the red, white and blue, is … well … themselves. But that doesn’t mean they are crowned before the games begin. Let’s start at the top and make our way down…
Australia
Top Players: Ezi Magbegor, Alanna Smith, Kristy Wallace, Tess Madgen
Breakout Candidate: Jade Melbourne
Threat level to Team USA: 6/10
I was surprised to see the Aussies ranked 5th, behind Japan at that, in the most recent FIBA Power rankings. They’ll be in Group B, arguably the Group of Death, with Canada, France and Nigeria. But what I love about Australia is they have the most balance in terms of size and athleticism which is what you will absolutely need to beat Team USA. Pretty much everyone has either played in the WNBA or is currently in it. A front court of Ezi Magbegor and Alanna Smith feels particularly lethal given the former’s rim protection and the latters shooting versatility. Add in 6’5 Marianna Tolo and WNBA legend Lauren Jackson who, while 43 and in her fifth Olympics, can still give you some spot minutes and there’s nice frontcourt depth. Rebecca Allen has proven to be a decent defensive wing in the W and Cayla George was on the floor for the Aces WNBA Finals games last year. The backcourt is a question mark in terms of athleticism but they have shooters. Kristy Wallace and Sami Whitcomb are the names that pop while Jade Melbourne and Isobel Borlase could benefit from some minutes at this stage. If anyone can pick off Team USA, it feels like Australia. Good shooters, good balance, an elite rim protector. It sure feels like the type of roster built for some stunners on the Seine.
Belgium
Top Players: Emma Meesseeman, Kyara Linskens, Julie Vanloo
Breakout Candidates: Julie Allemand, Maxuelle Lisowa-Mobaka, Billie Massey
Threat level to Team USA: 6/10
Belgium has long been one of the best stories in international basketball. Currently in the middle of a golden generation, they’ve been arguably the closest of anyone to unseating the Americans. They lost by just two in the February Olympic Qualifiers. In the last five matchups internationally, they’re undefeated. Everything runs through Emma Meeseeman, a 2019 WNBA Finals MVP with the Mystics, 2 time WNBA All-Star and one of the most decorated European players of the last decade. 6’4 with a game that can punish you on all sides of the floor, that is likely who pulls the A’ja Wilson assignment. On the front lines with her is 2023 FIBA EuroBasket Finals MVP Kyara Linskens and a young 6’1 center Billie Massey. The guards feel particularly interesting. Julie Vanloo has comported herself really well in the W this year despite being on a team — the Washington Mystics — that hasn’t done a ton of winning as of late. I’m also interested in how much we see out of Julie Allemand, who has bounced around the WNBA after being a 2020 All-Rookie selection. There’s a lot of talent here and Meesseman is who makes it all go. If they can get some good production out of their guards? Watch out.
Canada
Top Players: Aaliyah Edwards, Kia Nurse, Bridget Carlton, Natalie Achonwa
Breakout Candidates: Yvonne Ejim, Laeticia Amihere
Threat level to Team USA: 5/10
Canada might be a little too high after a pair of pre-Olympic losses, 61-48 to Spain and then an 81-51 beat down at the hands of Belgium, but I still really like the roster. On talent alone, I am putting them at the 5/10 tier. On results, they may be closer to the bottom. There’s still time for Victor Lapena to be able to put things together though it’s always interesting to see the one time Fenerbahce coach giving out the orders and a WNBA champion in Noelle Quinn on the bench. The hope for the land up north is that they manage to make it all work. Natalie Achonwa is the emotional leader of this team and while the guards aren’t super well equipped to handle the Team USA backcourt, their front court is as interesting as any in the tournament. Aaliyah Edwards, who has put together a nice rookie campaign in Washington, should factor in heavily. Bridget Carleton has had a nice season off the bench for the Minnesota Lynx. Yvonne Ejim and Laeticia Amihere are interesting names that may be a little young for this particular cycle but will benefit from the experience. It’ll require Kia Nurse, Syla Swords and Shay Colley to be the guards Canada needs them to be. If they can, then there is a chance they can escape the toughest group in Paris. But it won’t be an easy push.
China
Top Players: Han Xu, Wang Siyu, Li Meng
Breakout Candidates: Li Yueru, Yang Shuyu
Threat level to Team USA: 5/10
China is always an exceptionally elite women’s basketball nation. And they may have one of the most intimidating front courts to battle Team USA especially with FIBA rules allowing for more physicality under the basket. All that time filling in for an injured Cam Brink has likely helped Li Yueru, who will anchor the paint with 6’9 Han Xu. While she took a backseat to the triumvirate of stars that emerged in New York last year, there is no denying Han’s ability to be a gamebreaker. At this level, with Yueru and another big in 6’6 Sun Mengran, China has the bigs to matchup against the Americans. 2023 WNBA All-Rookie Li Meng will be shouldering the back court scoring load while Wang Siyu will be relied upon as a distributor. But all of this runs through Han, whose 26 points and 10 rebounds helped China beat Japan in the 2023 FIBA Asia Cup. They’re the projected winners of Group A and the most likely team to see Team USA in either a semifinal or final. Adjust accordingly.
Germany
Top Players: Marie Gulich, Leonie Fiebich, Nyara Sabally, Satou Sabally
Breakout Candidate: Lina Sontag, Emily Bessoir
Threat level to Team USA: 5/10
Germany is another team that, on paper, I look at and think ‘hm, this could be intriguing if they have a good night’. The big key here is Satou Sabally, who is slated to return for an Olympic run. If she is truly healthy and playing the way she did for the Dallas Wings last year, then Germany’s odds increase greatly. They’ve got plenty of good size in Marie Gulich, a traditional back-to-basket center who starred at Oregon State and played some years for the Sparks. There’s a nice Pac-12 (RIP) contingent here. The Sabally sisters (Oregon), Gulich (Oregon State), Alina Hartman (Colorado), along with Emily Bessoir and Lina Sontag (UCLA) add a bit of west coast flavor. Bessoir specifically is a floor stretching big who has been hampered by injuries but always showed a high ceiling. Fiebich, who has been a spectacular rotational option for the New York Liberty this year, feels primed to have a big tournament. They, like Canada, feel like they’re at a guard disadvantage, with former Syracuse star Alexis Peterson likely to run point while Satou can play the two spot if needed. But there’s a lot of really talented bigs and wings. Group C is Germany, Japan, Belgium and Team USA. While I’d say the Belgians have the best chance to shock the Americans, I’m really looking forward to seeing Germany and Belgium face off in the round robin stage.
France
Top Players: Marine Johannes, Iliana Rupert, Gabby Williams
Breakout Candidate: Leila Lacan, Dominique Malonga
Threat level to Team USA: 4/10
At long last, we get to see the Marine Johannes traveling road show again. Arguably one of the most dazzling offensive players in the world, Johannes was always a treat in New York and now, playing in her home country on the Olympic stage, it feels like she’s destined to show out. If you were to combine Germany’s bigs and France’s guards I think you’d have a team that could legitimately beat the Americans straight up. But…*gestures widly at European history the last 300 years* … we won’t see that. In the meantime, Gabby Williams is going to be fun to see match up against Team USA. A 2022 WNBA All-Defensive selection, she isn’t playing in the league this year because of prioritization rules. But Williams is a capable defender who will benefit from more physically oriented FIBA rules. Iliana Rupert won a title with the Aces and is still a young 23 year old prospect. The two young guns I’m interested in are Leila Lacan, the Sun’s first round draft pick this year and Dominique Malonga. If you don’t know the name, learn it now. Lady Wemby. Baby Brink. Enough said. She’s 18 years old, 6 foot 6 and already playing in the pros. More than anyone in the Olympics, I’d say she’s appointment television.
Spain
Top Players: Leticia Romero, Alba Torrens, Laura Gil
Breakout Candidates: Maite Cazorla, Megan Gustafson,
Threat level to Team USA: 4/10
Spain has long been the dominant force in European women’s basketball. Whether it’s their professional league or their national team performances at EuroBasket, their reputation is well earned. But it’s been an off few years for the Spaniards, 2023 EuroBasket notwithstanding. They didn’t qualify for the 2022 Women’s World Cup, finished 6th in the 2020 Olympics and 7th in the 2021 Euros. But in 2023, they were able to leverage a relatively easy (by comparison) trip to the finals where they fell to Belgium 64-58. The interesting addition here is former Iowa star Megan Gustafson. The 6’3 forward and current Aces player became a Spanish citizen this past year. Despite having no ties to the country, players can be invited to play for certain countries and represent them. Her Vegas head coach, Becky Hammon, famously was a member of the Russian national team. Her size will be a welcome addition to bolster a frontline of Laura Gil and Alba Torrens, who were a part of that 2023 run to the Euro Gold medal matchup. 31 year old shooting guard Queralt Casas will be leading the backcourt and I’m curious to see if former Oregon Duck Maite Cazorla makes a leap with this roster. Another interesting matchup in Group A with China, Serbia and Puerto Rico.
Japan
Top Players: Maki Takada, Himawari Akaho, Asami Yoshida
Breakout Candidates: Stephanie Mawuli, Mai Yamamoto
Threat level to Team USA: 4/10
On the surface, Japan might not be the team that you think is a major contender. But then you have to remember that they won the silver medal in the 2020 Olympic games. They shocked the world, beating Belgium 86-85 before dispatching France easily and then facing Team USA in the Gold medal game. The trouble will always come down to size. There just isn’t anyone on the Japanese team that can handle a Brittney Griner (who scored 30 in that final matchup in 2020) or, in this cycle, an A’ja Wilson. But Japan will be an interesting watch. They bring back all their firepower from the last cycle. Maki Takada was a leading scorer, while Rui Machida dished a record 18 assists against France in 2020. Stephanie Mawuli is a Japanese born product, who is the first ever player to win both 5x5 and 3x3 medals at the Asian Games in 2018. Mai Yamamoto is the newcomer to watch as well. The 24 year old is diminutive (listed at 5’5) but is a star in 3x3 hoops. She the FIBA U-23 World Cup Tournament MVP and shoot-out contest gold medalist, Japan’s first ever world title in basketball. While they’re not on home turf this time around, it will be fun to see if they can recapture that magic in Paris.
Serbia
Top Players: Tina Krasjinik, Yvonne Anderson
Breakout Candidates: Ivana Raca, Nevena Rosic, Angela Dugalic
Threat level to Team USA: 3/10
There’s a bit of a sea change happening with the Serbian team. Former Olympic stars Sonja Vasic, Ana Dabovic and Aleksandra Crvendakic are not on the roster for this cycle. With former Texas Longhorn Yvonne Anderson and one time Chicago Sky forward Tina Krajisnik as the veterans in the locker room, the Serbs have a bit of a youth movement going on. And with that, there’s been growing pains. The Serbs crashed out of the 2023 EuroBasket Tournament, losing to eventual champion Belgium 93-53. But they did manage to stay in the qualification for the Olympics, defeating Montenegro and then Germany. Mind you, this was a Serbian team that won the 2015 and 2021 EuroBasket while finishing 3rd and 4th in the 2016 and 2020 Olympics. So who is worth following now? 24 year old Ivana Raca who won a Turkish League and EuroLeague with Fenerbahce. Nevena Rosic is a name that you might hear on 2025 WNBA Draft lists, as she was voted the Eurobasket.com All-Serbian League Player of the Year at just 21 years old. Then there’s Angela Dugalic, who just wrapped up a Sweet 16 run with UCLA this past college season and will likely factor in heavily. While there is still some firepower, especially for a nation with a proud basketball tradition, it feels like a bridge Olympics for the next generation. But they are in Group A, which may have the most variance in terms of outcomes. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to think that they can make a push to the knockout rounds.
Puerto Rico
Top Players: Arella Guirantes, Pamela Rosado, Tayra Melendez
Breakout Candidates: Mya Hollingshed, Trinity San Antonio, India Pagan
Threat level to Team USA: 1/10
Since Cuba ceased to be the dominant Central American basketball power, Puerto Rico has been the crew that’s occupied the spot at most recent FIBA World Cups and Olympics. While they’re usually a team that gets beaten handily by the major powers, they did pull a bit of a surprise in 2022 by advancing out of the World Cup group stage. While they were thoroughly wiped by the United States and China, they held their own against Belgium while defeating South Korea and Bosnia & Herzegovina. In the 2021 FIBA AmeriCup they upset Canada before losing in the Gold medal game to Team USA. So while they do seem to run up on a buzzsaw from up north, the Puerto Ricans are getting more competitive on the world stage. The young guns on this team are a lot of fun. Mya Hollingshed was a first round draft pick to the Las Vegas Aces and Trinity San Antonio, who plays for Grand Canyon, is one of the best perimeter defenders you haven’t heard of in college basketball. Arella Guirantes looked like she might have staying power in the WNBA but has bounced around a bit. She now plies her trade in the Hungarian league. They have a little bit of size and some good guard play so they should be a fun dark horse pick in Group A.
Nigeria
Top Players: Promise Amukumara, Blessing Ejiofor, Amy Okonkwo
Breakout Candidates: Christeen Iwuala, Rita Igbokwe, Solape Amusan
Threat level to Team USA: 1/10
The D’Tigress are one of the best stories in global sports this year. A schism, mainly driven by ego and personal forces, almost cost Nigeria an opportunity to be able to even compete in the Olympics. But here they are, headed to Paris representing African women’s basketball. There’s a lot of interesting athletes with American university ties on the roster but at the same time, they might be a little early for this cycle to really compete. Only two members of the team are over the age of 28. Blessing Ejiofor, Lauren Ebo and Rita Igbokwe bring the size in the front court. Ejiofor, in particular, plays professionally in Spain after stops at Vanderbilt and West Virginia. Former ACC Freshman of the Year Elizabeth Balogun made the final roster and will likely factor in as a switchable defender. Most of the action will run through 31 year old point guard Promise Amukamara, who led the team to Gold medals in the 2019 and 2021 AfroBasket women’s tournament. It is, for all intents and purposes, a really good college team. Now picture that against the Death Star that is Team USA. It is likely they finish last in Group B but that doesn’t change how great of an experience this will be for all of the D’Tigress. And who knows, maybe they hang around in the Group of Death.
Ali Gibson (also an Oregon Stste alum) plays for Puerto Rico, in case you didn’t know that.