WNBA Monthly Awards: The Trillies
Who is the MVP? MOP? MIP through the first month of the season? The NCS Crew breaks it all down for you as we head into the summer.
You may be wondering ‘why call it The Trillies?’. It’s a relatively niche joke from the world of college football. For those that need a quick primer, there is a phenomenon in the sport known as the ‘September Heisman’. It’s usually a player that has a lightning hot first three weeks of the year and is viewed as a potential favorite to be named the best player in college football. Sometimes, that player fades. Famously, a quarterback named Kenny Hill took that world by storm, going as far as trademarking the name ‘Kenny Trill’ before tailing off into the mists of legend. Other times, the player runs wire-to-wire as the best player in the sport and takes home an award.
In honor of the overreactions involved with first month honors, we present ‘The Trillies’. Feel free to share, comment and join our chat to talk about which selections you like, dislike or who may be more deserving!
A quick note on MVP vs. MOP (before our comments get raided): Value is assessed here purely as a “where would your team be if we pulled you out of the lineup?” while Outstanding is judged as a pure metric of “are you the best player we see in the league?”. While there are athletes who fit the bill for both, MVP is always so nebulous that we thought it would be a good exercise to split it up so there’s two discussions of merit on both ends.
Most Outstanding Player:
Andrew: A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces
Come on, who else would it be? I honestly could leave it right there and it would be enough but for the sake of argument let’s play this out. Through one month, Wilson is tracking for career highs in points, total rebounds, offensive rebounds, blocks, minutes and steals. The advanced stats are even wilder. According to basketball reference, the league average for win shares per 48 minutes is .100. A’ja is currently at .409, a career best so far. Her PER is 37.5, which if held would be a WNBA record and pass Lauren Jackson’s 2007 record of 35.04.
Simply put, Wilson is a force multiplier on both sides of the ball and while there are other incredible players in the league, she’s playing a different kind of basketball right now. She’s starting to develop a signature mid-range shot that contains elements of Carmelo Anthony’s jab step, Kobe’s fadeaway and Dirk’s one footer. The bag from 18 feet feels almost endless. While I’m sure there’s a lot of casuals and new fans that are more oriented to the men’s game that would treat her as a demi-goddess if she managed to dunk one of her breakaways, real ones know she’s an artist on the floor. A hooper’s hooper on pace for a historic season we’ve never seen in the WNBA.
Most Valuable Player:
Andrew: Dearica Hamby, Los Angeles Sparks
There’s a very, very, very good argument that Wilson could also be the Most Valuable Player as well. Having seen this past week for the Aces one would have to wonder how fast they’d be tanking for Kiki Iriafen if Wilson wasn’t on the floor. But however valuable Wilson is still feels like it pales in comparison to the season Dearica Hamby is having in Los Angeles.
After a rather acrimonious exit from Vegas, Hamby has reinvented herself in her ninth season in the league with the Sparks. While some of that might be a function of a very young, bottom end roster, it also speaks to how good Hamby is that she’s kept them in a somewhat competitive mix. She nearly beat the Aces on her own back in May and has kept the team afloat in multiple one possession matchups, be they wins or losses. She’s averaging 20-11 on the season and has recorded double-doubles in 10 of her 12 games while playing 36 minutes per contest. While Rickea Jackson has shown promise and Cam Brink looks generational (when she’s not in foul trouble, that is), the Sparks might be in the Washington Mystics tier without Hamby holding them down every night.
Defensive Player of the Month:
Andrew: Ezi Magbegor, Seattle Storm
It feels like a bit of a breakthrough year for the 24 year old New Zealander. Through 12 games this season, Ezi Magbegor’s defensive rating (estimated amount of points allowed in 100 possessions) is down to 90. For reference, A’ja Wilson sits at 94. Magbegor has been on a couple of WNBA All-Defensive teams in the last couple years but has yet to check into a first team or DPOY slot. Admittedly, it’s hard when you’ve got Wilson and Alyssa Thomas to contend with. But with some better talent around her and an expanded offensive game, Ezi’s become a much more multifaceted player. As a rim protector she’s one of the best in the league, leading the W with 36 total blocks and 3.0 blocks per game. While she hasn’t been as prolific on the boards (76 this season) as other contenders like Wilson (91) or Thomas (85) there is still plenty of time to bump those numbers up.
Her player efficiency rating (a per-minute production measure) is top 10 in the league and slots her firmly between DeWanna Bonner and Dearica Hamby. And that’s while playing substantially less minutes than Hamby, Wilson and Thomas. There are plenty of players that will be able to creep up on her this year but I value rim protection as a key DPOY metric and right now, there’s few, if any, better than Magbegor.
Most Improved Player:
Andrew: Maddy Siegrist, Dallas Wings
The Pride of Poughkeepsie is back! I admittedly have a soft spot for anyone that comes out of the Section I/Section IX footprint in New York. And the NCS crew has been high on Maddy Siegrist for a long time. The big question coming into the WNBA was whether or not her scoring prowess would be able to translate at this level. At Villanova, she topped out averaging 29.2 points per game and 9.2 rebounds per game without being a volume three point shooter. At 6’1 she was a bit of a tweener when projected as a WNBA player and so it was fair to wonder if this was another case of a dominant collegian that might not pan out among the 144.
But boy that’s been a challenged notion in her sophomore campaign. After largely playing a role on the bench last season, Siegrist has stepped up in a void left by Natasha Howard’s injury in the first game of the year. Since then, it’s been pretty apparent that her scoring touch has lost none of its potency. While there’s a conversation to be had about how much that scoring translates to winning basketball (her defensive win shares are 0.0 and has a 110 defensive rating), it’s become clear this month that, at least in some way, Siegrist has a place in this league long term. It’s nice to get some love in while we can since Siegrist might be an early contender for “Trillie of the Year” once Satou Sabally and Howard return to the lineup and add more depth at forward.
Rookie of the Month:
Andrew: Angel Reese, Chicago Sky
In the spirit of ethical hate, I have to confess up front. I tried really hard to figure out a way to not give this one to Angel. Not out of any personal animus but more because I look at a player that plays so close to the basket and should be significantly more efficient with putting the ball in the hoop. When so much of your offensive rebounds are your own misses it can be construed as empty calories in a stat sheet. But again, at No Cap Space we hate ethically. And when the numbers and play suggests your hate don’t have the juice, then you gotta admit when your glass is empty.
While I’d love to see those field goal numbers spike in this league, Reese’s ability to get her own miss and put it back is something more than nothing. And that’s before you get into the actual numbers. Because once you get there, an argument against her impact completely falls apart. She’s, by a wide margin at this juncture, the best defensive rookie in the WNBA. She fouls significantly less than Cam Brink, who is the only one that stands in the same tier on that side of the ball, and is averaging nearly a double-double so far this year. Her defensive rating is the best among rookies, her win shares and win shares per 48 are the best among rookies. She’s a +2.4 on the court per 100 possessions and leads the league in offensive rebound percentage with 17.2%.
When you dig into the numbers, it really boils down to what we said at the onset of the year. Can Coach Weatherspoon manage to help Angel develop a bit of a game that’s 5-18 feet from the basket? She doesn’t need to become a pure jump shooter but once that unimpeachable effort is coupled with some skill and a bit of a bag? She’ll be running this league.
Vibes of the Month:
Andrew: New York Liberty
Amazing what a book club can do, eh? Last year much of the discussion centered around a Big Three arriving to augment Sabrina Ionescu and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and for some reason it just felt…off. The talent was undeniably there but there was a synergy that just didn’t seem to exist yet. Press conferences felt stilted and the conversation under the surface (and in some league circles) had been about Sandy Brondello’s centering of Sabrina on a team with two former WNBA MVP’s.
Whatever happened in the offseason to build chemistry, it sure seems like it’s improved substantially. Ionescu and Jonquel Jones, in particular, seem to have found a nice balance in the pick-and-roll. There’s been a couple of possessions that look eerily similar to the 2019 and 2020 Oregon teams that featured Sabrina and Ruthy Hebard destroying teams in PnR combos. Breanna Stewart has run a bit hot and cold this year but there doesn’t seem to be any animosity towards the team for it. In fact, it seems like the Liberty (and Sabrina, in particular) relish another organization taking the bulk of the macro discussions about race, gender and socioeconomics in the league. At 11-2 to open the year, the vibes are high in New York. But then again, the floor is always high when Ellie is around.
Tyler: Minnesota Lynx
The expectation coming into the season for the Lynx was…no expectations? In the land of the Aces and Liberty running it back, Storm and Mercury making moves, it felt as if teams kept sliding above the Lynx in the projected rankings. Well, when it comes to vibe rankings they are on top.
On the court this team is clicking way more than even the most positive preseason predictions could have imagined. The post win dances are consistently some of the best vibes in the entire league. Alissa Pili has had some of the best clips of being welcomed into the community as rookie I have ever seen. Across the board the wins are stacking and the team is winning, can’t ask for much more in Minnesota right now.
Overachiever of the Month:
Andrew: Connecticut Sun
Is it overachieving if this is just kind of what the Connecticut Sun do? There’s an argument to be made for the Sky, the Sparks, or the Lynx. But I think it is a bit of an overachieve for the Sun, who have stood toe-to-toe with the two elite teams on their schedule so far (New York and Minnesota) and then handled everyone with ease in the middle and bottom of the standings. I’ve been extremely impressed with DiJonai Carrington (who has a good MIP case as the year goes on) and with how Stephanie White has utilized her star core while developing talented players off the bench.
Teams can peak at various times of the year and the worry with the Sun is whether or not they can sustain the rate they’re on right now. Can Brionna Jones continue to be a star frontcourt option throughout this season? Will they be able to run 12 deep throughout the season? And the biggest question…how healthy can they stay? While I was expecting a top four start for the Sun, I wasn’t expecting a 10-1 open to the year. Let’s see if that continues throughout the year.
Surprise of the Month:
Andrew: Minnesota Lynx
Boy, the Lynx sure do look like a contender. They are also in the overachiever category on the strength of their absolutely scorching backcourt three point shooting in the first month of the season. As a team, Minnesota is shooting 41.8% from deep so far, leading the league by a wide margin. That’s on pace to be an all-time record in the WNBA (the current leader is the 2012 Indiana Fever who shot 40% as a team from three). A big piece of that credit goes to Kayla McBride, who so far has beaten the role player allegations and showcased why some offseason time in Europe can be helpful. Through one month, she’s averaging 17.8 points per game on a borderline preposterous 51.7% 3 point clip.
Couple that with Napheesa Collier, who is right back in that MVP 2nd tier (along with everyone not named A’ja Wilson, who is in a tier of her own currently), and you’ve got the makings of a Lynx team that can catch fire and beat anyone on any given night. They’ve beaten Seattle three times, split with the Aces and vaporized the Liberty in their sole meeting. The only other top end team to best the Lynx were the Sun and even then it was an 83-82 overtime game where McBride had a chance to hit a game winner. I’m not sure if Minnesota can keep this up but it’s pretty impressive how Cheryl Reeve has assembled a team of very good players and turned them into a force that can battle super team rosters around the league. And that’s with Diamond Miller still out with injury. Right now, if there’s a team you haven’t watched yet this season, make it the Lynx.
Tyler: Las Vegas Aces
Unfortunately this is not the good kind of surprise. If I told you before this season began that the Aces would be 5-5 in their first 10 games you would have told me I was crazy, yet here we are. For the first time in Becky Hammon’s tenure as Aces Head Coach the team is on a three game losing streak and find themselves at 7th in standings.
The obvious piece to point to that has been missing is Chelsea Gray, who is listed as questionable for the first time this season after suffering an injury in last season’s WNBA Finals, but even without her there is so much talent remaining on this roster. Kelsey Plum has struggled in several games early on, Jackie Young has been facing an illness that had her in and out of some games, and even A’ja Wilson being the clear number one player in the world couldn’t propel them into a positive record. I am far from hitting any big red panic buttons on this team but their start has absolutely been a surprise.
Headline games coming up…
New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces - Saturday June 15th, 3:00 pm EST (ABC)
Chicago Sky @ Indiana Fever - Sunday, June 16, 12:00 pm EST (CBS)
Seattle Storm @ Phoenix Mercury - Sunday, June 16th, 3:00 pm EST (ABC)
Seattle Storm @ Las Vegas Aces - Wednesday, June 19th, 10:00 pm EST (NBATV)
Connecticut Sun @ Las Vegas Aces - Friday, June 21st, 10:00 pm EST (ION)
Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx - Saturday, June 22nd, 8:00 pm (NBATV)
Indiana Fever @ Phoenix Mercury - Sunday, June 30th, 3:00 pm (ESPN)
Chicago Sky @ Atlanta Dream - Tuesday, July 2nd, 7:00 pm EST (CBSSN)
New York Liberty @ Indiana Fever - Saturday, July 6th, 1:00 pm EST (CBS)
New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun - Wednesday, July 10th, 11:00 am (TBD)
Las Vegas Aces @ Seattle Storm - Wednesday, July 10th, 3:00 pm EST (TBD)
Los Angeles Sparks @ Dallas Wings - Saturday, July 13th, 3:30 pm EST (CBS)